Duel - Obama v. Clinton Teil 2 - Part Two - Deuxième Act

One little Item went nearly unnoticed over the News Wires a few Days ago; Mrs. Clinton said, she would not (Emphasis added) commit to serving as Secretary of State in a Second Obama Administration. For that, obviously, the Implication is that Mr. Obama would be re-elected for a Second Term but, the Implication also is that Mr. Obama would be re-nominated by the Democratic Party for a Second Term; an almost universally shared Assumption. However, one should not assume that almost universally shared means that Mrs. Clinton shares in that Universe. Not too long ago, Mrs. Clinton had also stated in various Interviews that she loves her Job as Secretary of State, that it is such a great Job and that it gives the Opportunity to deal with so many Challenges on the World Stage.

Last Weekend, The New York Times broke with the Story regarding the Rift between 'The White House' and 'The State Department' (on the Issue of the Transition in Egypt, with Mubarak staying Short Term or Longer Term) which, translated into English means, the Rift between President Obama and Mrs. Clinton. There have also been Suggestions that the Leak(s) regarding the Rift came from The White House, which, if true, would absolve Mrs. Clinton of any Attempts to undermine the Authority of the President. Only The New York Times knows that for sure. However, before going too far inside that Suggestion, it might be useful to make a few Observations.

When the Demonstrations in Egypt broke out, the First Hawkish Statements came from Mrs. Clinton herself. In her inimitable Albrightesque-Cojonesque Style, Mrs. Clinton declared, with a menacing Voice, that the Leaders of Egypt (i. e., Mubarak) have no Choice but to listen to the Voices being raised in Tahrir Square. The White House bought into the Argument and, as the Demonstrations proceeded and gained Intensity, Mr. Obama came out on Television and through Statements issued by The White House and his Press Secretary, for a Rapid Transition in Egypt, accusing Mr. Mubarak of not moving fast enough, which of course he was not.

When, for all Intents and Purposes, Mubarak's Fate had been sealed, then the State Department became engaged into an Effort of lobbying for a Longer Transition, with Mubarak continuing to play a Role. That, in Effect, as we say, pulled the Rug from under the White House Statements, or, as I think somebody said way back during the Nixon Administration, left the White House 'twist slowly in the Wind,' without full, active and unqualified Support from The State Department.

Thus, one may ask the Question: 'Why?' One possible Answer is that Mrs. Clinton may be eyeing 2012. Many think that Mrs. Clinton would not attempt such a Thing until 2016. However, Politics today seem to dictate, 'Sooner is better than later,' in every Circumstance except when it comes to Budget Cuts and raising Taxes. Additionally, many of us, including Mrs. Clinton, could not help but notice the meteoric Rise of Sarah Palin who has literally come out of nowhere and who, many think, is going to make a Run for the White House, no matter what. Virgil said, 'Audentes Fortuna juvat.' With a little Bit of Luck, there may even be some Palin v. Bachmann Republican Primaries or even Palin v. Nikki Haley Primaries, in the South. Most astute Observers think that Palin is not very likely to be nominated by the Republican Party and, if she were, she would lose badly against President Obama or, any other possible Democratic Nominees and there aren't that many other 'possible Democratic Nominees' except, of course, for Mrs. Clinton. However, the very Fact of a Palin Candidacy in the Primaries, would raise the Awareness for a Woman Presidential Candidate.

For Mrs. Clinton to make another Run for the Democratic Nomination, the Stars would have to line up not just right, they would have to be perfectly lined up. That would mean, for the Budget, Deficit and Economy Issues to continue to run South; those, Mrs. Clinton knows she has no control over; they are on Automatic Pilot but the Automatic Pilot is steering a Course favourable to Mrs. Clinton; so, a few Foreign Policy Misalignments would not hurt.

Mrs. Clinton received a Total of 18 Million Votes in the last Series of Presidential Primaries; that is a formidable Achievement, particularly because she ran against a formidable Opponent and this Time, if it were that even the Possibility arose, that the First Woman President of the United States could be elected, the prevailing Wisdom would very likely be: No! Not Nikki Haley, not Michelle Bachmann and Heaven forbid Sarah Palin; Clinton!

And President Clinton would no longer have to go to the Pulpit in a Black Church and have to ponder outloud, how to solve the Dilemma of an 'Abundance of Riches' when it comes to making up his Mind regarding who would be the best Presidential Candidate this Time; there would now be only one logical Choice.

Nicollò Macchiavelli's Book, 'Il Principe' may have finally come to deserve a Sequel...'La Principessa.'

A Message for Valentine's Day

Today is Valentine’s Day and all the Inspiration that it can be for what it represents for Joyfulness, Tranquility, Sincerity and Love.

There is a huge Commercial Hoopla which surrounds this Day. Actually, the real Meaning of Valentine’s Day comes from St. Valentine, who happens to have been a Christian Saint. The Name Valentine means Strength or Courage, as in 'Valour' and it is associated with Strength of Love, not with cheesy Lovemaking. More interestingly, the Word also means Value, or Worth. The Name ‘Valentinus’ was derived from the Word Valens/Valentis (Value, Worth – as in, for Example, Equi-Valent – same Value/Worth – intentionally hyphenated here). Whatever Meaning one chooses to put in it, is, for each, his or her own Business. However, even when letting Imagination, trivial Romanticism or Commercialism, anything from Chocolates, to Flowers and beyond, extending as far as Diamonds, run unbridled, perhaps one should set back and ponder for a Moment that Valentine stands for Strength and Courage for one’s own Beliefs (Values). It can, it should therefore, it can be said, also represent the Strength and Courage needed for Love, when one loves another or is in love.

Egypt - Nothing to worry about?

It has become clearer and clearer in the last few Days that Mubarak's Departure is imminent. Whether he leaves Today, or Tomorrow or the Next Day, those are the only Things which various Observers and others are debating or seeking to influence. It is also evident, at least to some of us that Egypt is entering Uncharted Waters. Nobody really knows, even if they claim to know, just what a Future Egypt will look like, next Month or next Year.

It is interesting in this Context that numerous Financial Analysts dismiss the Turmoil in Egypt and describe it as being inconsequential, in Terms of the Effect in might have on International Trade and thus, the World Economy. Various Arguments are submitted in support of this Thesis: The Egyptian Economy is very small, Egyptian Trade with the West is limited, there are no huge Egyptian Mega Banks. Thus, the World Stock Markets have continued unaffected, indeed, generally advancing, totally dismissing the unfolding Turmoil in Egypt.

One wonders how many of these Analysts have taken into Consideration the Suez Canal. Acts of Sabotage have been reported both in the Canal Zone and the Suez Pipeline, which is adjacent to it. To the Extent that the Political Instability in Egypt might influence the Safe Operation or, indeed, the very Operation of the Suez Canal, some of these very same Financial Analysts would do well to take notice that the Suez Canal carries, according to some Estimates, nearly 10% of the World Shipping and a very large Proportion of the Oil produced in the Arabian Peninsula. When the Suez Canal had to be closed as a result of the 1967 War, it remained closed for 8 Years; the Consequences on World Trade, particularly Oil Trade were enormous.

The other Danger, which these Financial Analysts appear to ignore and pay no Attention to or indeed, even discuss, is the much spoken 'Domino Effect' which transferred from Tunisia to Egypt and may be headed elsewhere, to places such as Jordan or Yemen. While neither Jordan or Yemen are Oil Exporting Nations, the simple Likelihood of Instability, however slight, in the Arabian Peninsula Region is something which perhaps should not be too easily dismissed. Finally, nothing is known about what Effects all this may or may not be having on Saudi Arabia, a Giant Oil Producer and also a Country where, according to some Reports, a certain Form of Slavery is still legal.

The Question behind this Article is to ask what Kind of Logic is driving the Positive Outlook of the Stock Market Averages, in view of this Onslaught of very worrying News. The underlying Question to that Question is, that if one assumes the Obvious, that Financial Markets can only be driven by Money, i. e., more Money flowing in than flowing out, then to what Extent the Policy of the Fed's 'Quantitative Easing' is fueling all this. It has been noted many, many Times before; Markets only go up when more Money flows in than flows out; that particular Law of Mathematics has not yet been repealed.

This should bring us down to taking a Look at some other Fundamentals: Jobs, Housing/Mortgages and Health Care. Mr. Bernanke testified before Congress on 9 February and spoke about the Dangers of the horrendous Federal Deficits but seemed to be little concerned about 'Quantitative Easing' which, although it carries a different Mathematical Symbol than the Federal Deficits before the Numerals, it has the same Effect as Deficit Spending, meaning, Cash Out. It would be useful to know, it would seem, therefore, just how much of this 'Quantitative Easing' Cash Out is finding its Way into Financial Markets, whether managed or coincidental and what the overall Effect on the Economy that would produce, if indeed that is the Case.

'Universities'

Most of us have an eMail Account of one Sort of another and, as Time goes by, our eMails get 'mined,' sorted, given away, sold and eventually used by eMailing Lists of all Sorts. One of the more Interesting Classes of Lists that is out there are the Lists used by 'Universities.' Let's flash back for a Moment. Traditionally in the United States we have had Public Universities and Colleges as well as Privately Endowed Universities and Colleges. 'Public' meant owned and financed by the State, ´Private,' meant, 'Privately Endowed' by a Founder, Charity, Institution or a Combination of these and similar Entities. To that, a more recent Development has been the 'Junior College' System which, some us understood to be a 'Bridge' for Underprivileged or Underachievers to eventually reach a College or University. There are also a few Special Situation Institutes of Higher Education. What one normally did not associate with a 'College' or 'University' was a Private, for Profit Business, similar to a Factory, Insurance Company, Advertising Firm, etc., a Business of any Type. Yet, if one looks under the Core of some of the 'Colleges' and 'Universities' which actively and aggressively recruit Students, through Advertising and on Line, with Names like de Vry, Strayer, University of Phoenix and many others, that's what they all seem to be, Businesses. One wonders how much the Federal Student Loan Program has contributed to the Development of such Business and just what the overall Benefit they render to Society is.

It might be good to keep in Mind a very interesting Observation which was recently made by former retired U. S. Supreme Court Justice Souter, speaking at a Symposium at Yale University. Citing a Study that he had read, he noted that, on average, the Academic Level of a High School Graduate in the 1990's was about the same as the Academic Level of a High School Dropout in the 1940's. He also noted, again, citing the same Study, that the Academic Level of a College Graduate in the 1990's was about the same as the Academic Level of a High School Graduate in the 1940's. What Justice Souter did not mention is the Fact that in the 1940's, it did not cost $25.000,00 a Year to get a High School Diploma.

Saturday's Matinée Performance at The Met - La Traviata

Over the years, 'La Traviata' (Music by Giuseppe Verdi, Libretto by Francesco Maria Piave) has been the most performed Opera by The Met. Thus, The Met has a rich Hertiage to uphold, every time it stages this performance. Sad to say, Sunday's Matinée Performance, described in such glowing terms by Margaret Junkwait and Ira Siff, fell far, far short of such standards. Not that the singers were not good. They were. Poplavskaya can sing Violetta well and the conducting by Noseda certainly showed a thorough understanding of the Score. But the presentation of the Willy Decker production, with Act 2, 3 and 4 all compressed into a non-stop/'let's get this over with' tempo left the listener uninspired by the deep emotion and meaning that Verdi or, for that matter, Alexandre Dumas fils had in mind. Perhaps one should remind The Met, if anyone is 'listening' that less is more can sometimes be deceiving and that sticking to basics may not be, after all, 'passée.'

Snowstorm and Paralysis in New York City

Some of us wonder why so much Praise is lavished upon Mayor Bloomberg, when one reads about the miserable Street Situation after the Snowstorm that just hit New York City. Isn't New York City also in serious Financial Trouble facing massive Cuts after Mayor Bloomberg completed Two Terms in Office and had the City Charter ammended so he could run for a Third Term which he is serving now? What Results deserving of all this Praise are we talking about?