Cyprus and the Stock Market

This Column has long been critical of the Policies of The Federal Reserve and others, but particularly those of Mr. Bernanke, by pointing out the Low Interest, Easy Money Policies which The Fed has pursued, not only under Mr. Bernanke but also before (under Mr. Greenspan, for Example), but Policies which have been exacerbated during the Tenure of Mr. Bernanke.

Particularly, in the View of this Column but not only this Column, in the Opinion of others, including many respected Economists both in the United States and elsewhere, the Policies of the Fed have made it possible for the Stock Market to propel to Record Highs, in the Face of a languishing Economy, High Consumer Debt, the Mortgage Crisis, staggering Federal Deficits and so on.

Interesting, however, have been some of the Explanations which have come forward in order to explain the relentless upward Gyrations of the Stock Market from various Apologists and Allies of these Policies, including but not limited to, that Financial Powerhouse known as Goldman Sachs which, some consider to be an Arbiter of the Financial Movements on the Stock Market.

One of the Arguments most strongly pursued by these Apologists has been the „Global Nature” of the Stock Market, meaning that the World Economies are so tightly intertwined that the Stock Market represents not only a Barometer of the U. S. Economy but of the Global Economy and Financial Movements as well.

So, along this Week comes an „Inconvenient Truth,” that of a little Insular Country in the Eastern Mediterranean called Cyprus, a place many People have not even heard of.

Cyprus

Cyprus is a relatively tiny Island with enthic Problems of its own but which joined the Euro and, because of its unique Location, it attracted immense Offsore (well, Cyprus itself is Offshore!!!) Deposits from Russia and elsewhere.  Because Cyprus has close Relations with Greece, much of these Deposits were invested in Greece and other Places where they should not have been invested and the Result has been a Financial Disaster which may cause two or more of the Cyprus Large Banks to collapse and drag the whole of Cyprus into Collapse with them. 

Unspoiled Cyprus Shoreline

The European Central Bank has orchestrated a „Bailout” of Cyprus but, mindful of the Disaster in Greece and looming potential Disasters in Spain, Portugal, Italy or even France, it has „linked” the Bailout to a 10% Expropriation to be levied on all Savings Accounts, in order to help pay for the Bailout.  Although this was later modified to apply only to Savings Accounts above a certain Limit, the Resistance to such a Plan was monumental.  After considerable Turmoil on the Streets, accompanied by a „Bank Holiday” which caused a horrifying Liquidity Crunch in a Matter of Days, the Cypriot Parliament turned down the „Help” thus forcing the Situation forward into uncharted Waters.  Whereas, earlier, Huge Banks such as Deutsche Bank and, possibly, some American Banks and other Foreign Banks were not allowed to fail because of the Greek Financial Crisis (The „Too Big to Fail” Theory), large Cypriot Banks, tiny in comparison to Multinational International Banks may be allowed to fail.  We simply don't know.

However, all this presents a Dilemma for the Apologists and Supporters of the Stock Markets in New York, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average just recently catapulted, at galloping Speed, over the 14,000 Mark, citing, „Strength in the Economy.”

So, the following Explanation came forward:  it said, the  Cyprus Financial Crisis will actually help U. S. Markets because Investors will have no Choice but to seek Refuge in the U. S. Markets.  Throw out the Window „Globalisation,” High Unemployment, Horrendous Deficits, Disastrous Balance of Payments and, lest we forget, „Derivatives” championed by many, not least of whom, Goldman Sachs, which brought the United States Economy and Banking System to the Brink, requiring huge, partly unfunded Bailouts not only of Banks, but of huge other Institutions and Corporations.

It goes without saying that Mr. Bernanke, who has announced his Departure when his current Term expires, has remained silent on this Matter.  The Fed continues, during this continuing Series of Crises, to keep open „The Discount Window” where large, „Too Big to Fail Banks,” (and Financial Institutions, such as Goldman Sachs) can borrow Money at near Zero Interest Rates, while ordinary Citizens must struggle with Mortgage Foreclosures, Credit Card Debt and Student Loans.

„Irrelevant,” one can hear them say.  The Dow Jones has pushed through 14,000 and the Economy is on the Mend.  Global Economy or no Global Economy, Cyprus is 6.000 Miles away from New York.  We simply wonder, how are they measuring the Distance?  Globally, as on a Globe, or Flat Distance, as they did at one Time when everybody thought the Earth was flat and all you had to do in order not to fall off is not go too close to the Edge.
 

The $ 1 Billion Presidential Election: One Billion Dollars and 10 Days to go

Way back then, way back when, in the 1960's an American writer by the Name of Theodore H. White came up with a brilliant Idea:  write a Book each four Years entitled ,,The Making of the President."  The Idea met with great Success.  Theodore H. White, who first wrote ,,The Making of the President 1960'' about the historic Kennedy-Nixon Campaign, went on to write Sequels about subsequent Presidential Elections, none as succesful as his First One, but still, all of them succesful enough.  Today, this Tradition seems to have faded.

So, one wonders, what insightful Issue might be noteworthy enough to bring to the Forefront if one were to write a Book titled ,,The Making of the President 2012.''  Several Campaign Issues which have been played up by the two Candidates come to mind.

§  Jobs - this is an Issue that impacts every American.

§  The Economy - again, this is an Issue that also impacts every American as well.

Other Issues, be they in the Area of Foreign Policy, Women's Rights, Homosexual Rights, Minority and Immigration Issues, are all Policy Issues, which, while being important enough and likely to affect the Outcome of the Election in a profound Manner, are still issues which, directly, ipso Facto, do not directly and imminently affect every American in the same Way that Jobs and the Economy (Two Facets of one and the same Issue) do.

However, there is another Aspect which does affect each and every American and, at that, in a profound Way and that is the Deficit.  Currently at $ 16 Trillion (it was 11 Trillion when President George W. Bush left Office) it is projected to rise in the upcoming Four Years, regardless of which Candidate wins the coveted Office.

http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/15/14453514-whether-its-obama-or-romney-either-will-face-huge-obstacles-on-economy?lite

And, aside from Generalities which are difficult to pin in Terms of tangible Policies, neither Candidate has a stark, aggressive and palpably effective Plan to deal with this Morass.  Even more worrysome is the Fact that the Federal Debt is held largely in foreign Hands, China, surprisingly, Japan (No. 2), according to several Reports and then followed by other Countries.

More worrysome is the Fact that under Mr. Bernanke's Policies, the Federal Deficit has become more susceptible to short Term Effects, this, because of Mr. Bernanke's Implementation of something he calls ,,Operation Twist'' under which the Fed is retiring as much as possible of the Long Term Debt, in exchange for Short Term Debt at somewhat lower Interest Rates.

This, of course, has the Effect of reducing, in the Short Term, the Federal Deficit which would be worse if the Interest Rates paid by the Federal Government were higher rather than lower, as they would become and are becoming, under the Policy of swapping higher Interest Long Term Debt for (slightly) lower Interest Short Term Debt, sometimes as short as a Month, a Week, or even a Day.

http://bottomline.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/11/14370868-washington-must-avoid-fiscal-cliff-goldmans-blankfein-warns?lite

However, there is serious Danger in the Policy being pursued by Mr. Bernanke.  Any Increase in the Interest Rates (on which the Fed has mercilessly kept the Lid on), would be ruinous for the Federal Debt.  Higher Interest Rates would push Interest Expenses into the Stratosphere, worsen the Deficit and Situations like that are ocurring right now not only in Greece, but also in places like Italy and Spain.  Mr. Bernanke does not tell us what Plan he has to deal with these Dangers and, what the Heck?  He wants to retire after his current Term expires.  Let someone else deal with that Problem.

 

But for the Presidential Candidates, there is another Aspect.  The President of the United States, or an Aspirant to that High Office, the Highest Office in the Land can set an Example.  An Example of a Modecum of Fiscal Discipline.  And, Mr. Obama, who has been unable to exercise this and Mr. Romney who claims he has ,,Experience'' in Fiscal Discipline have both set an unglorious Example:  this will be the First Presidental Election which will cost more than $ 1 Billion, which, as everyone else knows, is $ 1000 Million, that is to say, the Equivalent of $ 3,00 being spent for each Man, Woman and Child in the United States; that includes everyone, voting or non voting.

A significant Part of this Expenditure is yet to happen and it is about to happen now:  in the last 10 hectic Days of the Election, on an unprecedented Advertising Blitz by both Candidates.  That means, the Candidates would not be spending the Bulk of this Money on explaining or discussing the Issues which affect the Nation but rather, spending the Money on Advertising of one Sort of another.  Someone even before Theodore H. White said that the campaign for President of the United States is akin to selling a Box of Cereal on Television.

 http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/17/14511630-ad-spending-tops-800-million-on-pace-to-reach-or-come-close-to-1-billion?lite

What Confidence can this Kind of senseless Spending instill in the Electorate that the succesful Candidate Ten Days from now, is going to have what it takes and it is going to take a Lot, an awful Lot, to bring Sense and Reason to a Financial Mumbo Jumbo built Brick by Brick by President Reagan with his Supply Side Economics Theories, President Clinton with his ,,Take the Money from here, put it there and balance the Budget'' Theories,  President Bush with his we can do two Wars at the same Time and do everything else at the same Time Theories, Mr. Greenspan with his ,,Irrational Exuberence'' Theories,  Mr. Bernanke with his ,,Operation Twist'' Theories and, and...Mr. Obama who, regardless of what one's Opinion might be of him, certainly was faced, for the last Four Years with a nagging Question:  how do we get out of this Mess which took so long to create?

One Way, admittedly four Years later that both he and Mr. Romney could have done was:  don't spend this Kind of ,,Irrational Exuberance'' Money to be elected President.

The Problem with President Clinton

The Problem the Democrats have with President Clinton, but do not or do not want to recognize, at least not yet, is similar to the Problem Republicans have with President Reagan but, it may be, that Republicans do not recognize their Problem, not yet anyway, either.  Certainly, the Republicans do not want to recognize it, though.

However, President Reagan has slowly began to fade from Memory, that ,,Great Communicator'' who had to have ,,Handlers'' when it came to Presidential Debates.  President Reagan caused enormous and, one might say, irreparable Damage by stimulating the Economy with enormous Deficits which expanded the Economy, created a Lot of rich People but also started the Build Up of an unprecedented Debt Load.  After a brief Hiatus during the 4 Year Presidency of President George H. W. Bush (Bush ,,41'', who called ,,Reaganomics'' ,,Voodoo Economics'') President Clinton not only continued President Reagan's Tradition but even praised it.

So now President Clinton whose salacious Activities with Monica Lewinsky have long ago faded from Memory, he and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton now boast, he knew how to balance the Budget.  Yeah, he did.  But how he did it is the more interesting Part.  President Clinton took the Postal Service Retirement Fund ($ 7 Billion) as well as the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds (which were enormous Sums of Money) and threw them into the General Budget thusly creating a huge but temporary Infusion of Cash and, ,,Poof!,'' it looked as if the Budget was ,,balanced,'' but, again, only temporarily.  Now, not only the U. S. Postal Service but, far more worrying, Social Security and Medicare are in dire Straits.  Everyone is scared of raising the Payroll Tax Deduction Ceiling (now at $ 110,000 for People earning $ 110 Million, or $ 11 Million or even $ 1,1 Million because it would ,,discourage'' the Creation of new Jobs?).  President Clinton's Two Terms were then followed by the two economically disastrous Terms of President George W. Bush (Bush ,,43,'' the Dubya) and during his Term and after that, we all know what happened.  The Federal Deficit now adds up to $ 16 Trillion, give or take a Couple of Pennies and nobody has come up with a Plan of any Kind as to how this Deficit might begin to be retired.  Statements by the two Presidential Candidates, President Obama and former Governor Romney are about how they plan to reduce the Size of future Deficits and eventually reach (one hopes) a Balanced Budget, if...if this and if that and if something else, but, without raising Taxes.  Go figure.

So, when Mr. Clinton claims that the Economy is not ,,hunky dory'' but on the Mend,

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/19/14567670-clinton-lauds-obama-says-economy-not-hunky-dory-but-on-the-mend?lite

it is reasonable to question his Authority at coming up with such Statements.  Actually, with the Congressional Impasse over Cuts and Taxes and with ,,Automatic Sequestrations'' being a Problem which, no matter which way it is resolved or remains unresolved, the adverse Consequences on the Economy, the Problems which will be faced by the President after he takes the Oath of Office on 20 January 2013, no Matter if it is the current President or the Republican Challenger, will be daunting, very, very daunting, indeed.  And that, while at the same Time having to deal with Mr. Bernanke's untested Theories about ,,Quantitative Easing,'' ,,Operation Twist'' and who knows what else that Mr. Bernanke might come up with.

Sometimes, we can overcomplicate Things in spite of ourselves.  The basic Truth is that just like the Republican Party is not the Party of Ronald Reagan, it is the Party of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt; equally, the Democratic Party, it would be good to remember, is not the Party of Bill Clinton; it is the Party of Thomas Jefferson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt.  President Clinton said, when he first ran for President, ,,It's the Economy, Stupid!'' and he was right.  One could have also said at the same Time and certainly can say it now:  ,,Keep it simple, (Stupid!)''  ,,Do not solve a Problem by creating another Problem.''

 

The Vice Presidential Debate

The one and only Vice Presidential Debate took place on Thursday.  It was at a Level which far superceded the preceding Affair which took place Four Years ago between Vice President (then Senator) Joe Biden and then Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin.  The latter, one could say, was merely a Caricature of a Vice Presidential Candidate, a Choice which Senator John McCain came to regret deeply but, of course, too late for himself.

Vice President Joseph R. Biden

Both Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan had one Job to do and they both knew it; enhance the Position of their respective Presidential Running Mate and inflict as much Damage on the Opposition as possible, especially in View of the unexpected outcome of the First Presidential Debate only a Week ago.

Congressman Paul D. Ryan

Each of the two Opponents put into sharp Focus the Positions of their respective Ticket although, sadly, the National Audience for the Debate was modest; not too many seemed to care, apparently, what each had to say.  At the same Time, however, this Observer believes, they both revealed, either unwittingly or because they did not know how else to avoid, the Weaknesses in their Views.

Vice President Biden argued eloquently and flawlessly for the Responsibilities of the Federal Government when it comes to Social Security and Medicare among other Things but he was not able to offer a Plan which would show how the Federal Government can sustain over the long Term, or even the short or moderate Term, these Expenditures.  Although the Vice President argued, passionately, for an end to the ,,Tax Cut'' for People making $250.000,00 or more, the Truth of the Matter is, even if that Plan were to materialize despite the fanatical and, some would say, illogical Opposition by the Republican Members of Congress, that, alone, would not come even close to beginning to deal with the horrendous Federal Deficit which threatens to cripple not only Social Security and Medicare, but much, much more.

Congressman Ryan, on the other Hand, made the Argument, with equal Eloquence, for the Management and Control of Social Security and Medicare (but not Defense) Costs.  Certainly, Management and Control of these Costs (whether in the Form proposed by Congressman Ryan, who has been advocating much of what he said long before he became a Vice Presidential Candidate) or another, are necessary.  But, assuming for a Moment, that everything that Congressman Ryan is proposing were to be implemented, that, too, would not come even close to dealing with the - just as horrendous - Federal Deficit.

So, where does that leave us?  Lost in the Equation was the Observation and Warning by IMF Director Christine Lagarde, who warned of dire Consequences if these severe financial Problems are not addressed and, soon.

Mme. Christine (Madeleine Odette) Lagarde, Director of the IMF

One interesting ,,Tidbit'' that came out during the dueling was about Embassy Security Details.  Vice President Biden pointed out, correctly, that Congressman Ryan had voted against increasing the Security Detail Budget for Embassies and Consulates abroad by $300 Million.  One might well wonder just how much Money is being spent on Embassy Security Details in the First Place, if the Increase that was being sought, alone, was $ 300 Million.  One might equally wonder why the U. S. Embassy in Baghdad has nearly 16,000 Individuals working there (Largest U. S. Embassy abroad, according to the last Fact Check).  You could ask, which is the Second largest U. S. Embassy abroad.  Here is the Answer:  Beijing, China and, although just recently opened, it is too small and the Construction of an Addition is under Way.
 

Punting

The Annual Deficit for the Budget Year about to close will again exceed $ 1 Billion.  While this should not come as a Surprise, it should nonetheless be jolting, especially in View of the Fact that Congress, consisting of a Group of highly paid Individuals, has chosen to be in Session for 4 Days in August, 8 Days in September and (according to the Schedule), 0 Days in October.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/obama-faces-test-as-deficit-stays-above-1-trillion.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120926&moc.semityn.www

(Click the Link above in ,,The New York Times'' for more Details)


Regardless of who the Victor will be and Mr. Romney's Chances of being the Victor appear to be diminishing, a bit too rapidly, many of them due to his own doing, the Issue has thusly been punted to beyond the Election Day in November  (Comments by Mr. Romney wondering why Airplane Windows cannot be opened can be, at a certain Level, even more damaging than Comments about the ,,47%.'').

What is going to happen after Election Day?  Likely, a Period of bitter and divisive Discord will ensue and, of course, none of it would be helpful or constructive.

However, one Fear worth considering may be, what Mr. Bernanke might do, in View of a deteriorating Situation.

It is not unlikely that Mr. Bernanke  may come up again with some ill conceived Theory about what he wants to do about ,,fixing the Economy.''  It is arguable that if Mr. Bernanke were to be sent back to Princeton he would do less Damage from there but that poses an interesting Question:  had he been alive, would President Woodrow W. Wilson have rehired him?

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve

and former Professor of Economics at Princeton University

 

 President Woodrow W. Wilson

                                                                     28th President of the United States

                                                                     President of Princeton University (1902-1910)

 

 

Dancing Elephants - Continued - The New York Times

Jeffrey R. Immelt? Ain't this the Fellow at GE with the Dancing Elephants who was chosen by The President to head the Council of Economic Advisers?

Now, Boys, shouldn't he also be given a Hefty Raise or be paid a Huge Bonus by GE? And, given the Expertise of John Samuels, who formerly worked for The Treasury and now works for GE, it should not be too difficult, if at all, to claim either Payment as an Expense Deduction for GE. No Social Security Withholding Taxes need to be paid to The Treasury for this, either, since the additional Compensation would be over the Threshhold. What the Heck! Give'm both the Raise and the Bonus! There would be no Adverse Impact on GE's Earnings if you do this, Boys; the Money will come from the U. S. Treasury! Oh, lest we forget; no Social Security Withholding Taxes to be taken from Mr. Immelt's Compensation for his 'Services' to the Government as an 'Economic Adviser.'

The earlier Reference to 'Dancing Elephants' in this Forum appears to be corroborated by the Article which appeared on 24 March 2011, in The New York Times (Link below). The New York Times also makes Reference to GE's Slogan in the 'Dancing Elephants' Ad: 'Imagination at Work!' NO KIDDING!!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/business/economy/25tax.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

The Fundamentals of Voodoo Economics

The Financial Crisis continues to play out in Wisconsin and other Mid-Western States. The Standoff between Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the Teacher's Union continues with no End in Sight. In Ohio, Governor John Kasich is also preparing for Battle with the Public Sector Unions. Iowa and other States appear to be ready to follow suit in not too long a Time. In New Jersey, Governor Chris Christie has already implemented major Financial Changes and Reforms and now has his Hands full denying that he would consider a Presidential Bid. Governor Christie has not yet invoked the Statement made by General William Tecumseh Sherman well over a Century Ago, 'I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected,' but we shall see.

It must also be said that with non Higher Education Student Performance Levels in a Dismal State throughout the Nation (see, 'Universities' elsewhere in this Forum) Teacher Salaries and Benefits should come under Scrutiny. Many Surveys indicate that Public Sector Workers are not only paid better but also have infinitely better Job Security when compared to Private Sector Workers. This Fact corrupts the Standing of Public Sector Workers as 'Civil Servants,' i. e., performing out of Dedication rather than Financial Benefits and Gain.

However, the Argument that balancing State Budgets can be done simply by this, without imposing an additional Tax Burden on Higher Income Brackets or, indeed, as done by Governor Walker, cutting Higher Income Taxes, qualifies for what Two Decades earlier President George Herbert W. Bush described as 'Vodoo Economics.'

At the Federal Level, we see a Course not all that different. 'Tea Party-ers' and many Republicans in the House are clamoring for various Cuts, much of it directed at Federal 'Entitlement' Programs and, some, attempting to reduce waste. However, all this cutting, if combined with continued uncontrolled Expenditures in Afghanistan and Iraq is totally useless. The Federal Budget consists of 3 Major Line Items: Social Programs, Military Expenditures and Interest on the Federal Debt, which add up to about 90% of what the Federal Government spends. So, even if everything else were to be eliminated completely, which, realistically it cannot, that would only add up to 10%.

In this Context, the Republican Argument that the Federal Budget can be brought under control, with these enormous Burdens, while reducing Higher Income Personal Tax Levels is, again, nothing less than what President Bush described as 'Voodoo Economics.'

Where the Republican Counter Argument that cutting Higher Income Tax Brackets 'creates Jobs' has germinated from is, to this Writer, a Mystery. There is no Evidence to show that the Billions doled out to Banks and Financial Institutions, or the 'Quantitative Easing' Cash have created any significant Number of Jobs, actually, rather, the Contrary Argument seems to be more persuasive, that they have not. To use a Cliché, the Obscene Bonuses on Wall Street have not created any Jobs.

The Challenges to balancing the Federal Budget (and, by Implication, States need to follow a similar Course in their Affairs) are:

If the War in Afghanistan (or in Iraq, or anywhere else) is necessary, fund first, fight later. Do not do what President George W. Bush did, fight first and let somebody else worry about the Funding by kicking the Can forward.

If the Social Programs have merit, fund and do not divert Funds to other Expenditures, as it was done previously with Social Security.

To cover the Federal Debt Interest Payments, one of the largest Items in the Federal Budget, obtain Funding, not by increasing the Debt Ceiling and cutting Taxes which are Voodoo Economics at its most sublime, but by assuring a Progressive Level of Taxation which covers them and, at the same Time, pray and pray hard, that somehow Mr. Bernancke will be succesful in keeping the Interest Rates low because, if he fails doing that, the Interest Payment Portion of the Federal Budget would explode.

And the Fundamentals of Voodoo Economics would not apply, should that happen.