Be careful what you wish for

We all recall ,,The Arab Spring'' and the Encouragement which was offered, particularly by Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton to the Forces which toppled Regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Lybia.  Traditionally, some Long Term Thinking and Analysis of what the Consequences might be when one undertakes a particular Course in Foreign Policy are indispensable.  Many Historians and Political Scientists compare Foreign Policy to a Game of Chess, where thinking several Moves in Advance is essential.

Thus, the Statement reported to have been made today by Egypt's relatively freshly elected President, Mohamed Morsi is quite insightful, we believe:

In a speech that was by turns defensive and conciliatory, he ultimately gave no ground to the critics who now were describing him as a pharaoh, in another echo of the insult once reserved for the deposed president, Hosni Mubarak.

“God’s will and elections made me the captain of this ship,” Mr. Morsi said.

 

(as reported by The New York Times - Emphasis added)

Full Article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/24/world/middleeast/amid-protest-egypts-leader-defends-his-new-powers.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121124&_r=0
 

 

Traditionally, Secretaries of State have been notably apolitical.  A Secretary of State strived, sometimes more succesfully than at other Times, to further the Interests of the United States to be served for the current and future Administrations, regardless of which Political Party were to come into Power.  Secretaries of State did not harbour Presidental Aspirations.

 

However, all this Amalgamation of Developments in the Middle East already combined with Talk about ,,2016'' and how long Mrs. Clinton will stay on the Job as Secretary of State after having announced her Announcement to leave, for so long and so many Times, might be Ground for one to give thought to the Adage:

 

,,Be careful what you wish for.''

 

To this, we should consider the Thought that Events in Syria and Gaza, not to mention Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and even Turkey, are still unfolding.

The Danger of War

Fifty Years ago, if one were to ask someone on the Street, be it in New York, Washington, Moscow, Paris, London and, yes, probably even in Beijing (then referred to as Peking or Pekin), People would have said, most likely, that the greatest Danger of the Possibility of a War comes from Berlin.  There were good Reasons for this Line of Logic.  Although the Devastation of World War II which killed, according to some Estimates, 45 Million People (25 Million of them Soviets/Russians) in total had ended, there was no Peace Treaty formally ending World War II.  The City of Berlin was divided by a terrifying Wall, Germany was divided by an equally terrifying Fence and East and West (in Europe and in Asia, too) faced each other, in many Spots, through the Barrel of a Shotgun.

As of today, there has still been no Treaty signed formally ending World War II.  Technically, the United States, Russia (as Successor to the Soviet Union), England and France are still at War with Germany, Japan and Italy.  But nobody takes seriously, or even in Jest the Possibility of a Conflict in this Theatre.

In historical Terms, 50 Years is a short Time but in this Span of a little more than 50 Years, the increased and continuing Danger of Conflict in The Middle East has been widening not only in Amplitude but also territorially.  This Conflict which was initially (after the End of World War II) a Conflict basically encompassing the Debate between Israel and the Palestinians has now, under the Banner of Allah and Islam enveloped Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, Pakistan, Lybia and, with perhaps more concern that has been accorded until now, Turkey as well.

Ethnically, the Mix is extremely diverse, involving not only Israeli Jews on the one Side but Pakistanis, Turks, Kurds, Persians and Arabs of various Colourations (including but limited to Sunnis and Shiites), to mention just a Few.  Wars costing Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, if not more, severalfold the Cost of World War II have been fought by Western Powers, including but not limited only to the United States.  Is there an End in Sight?  The current Conflict between Israel and the Hamas Faction of the Palestinians casts Doubt on that Hope.

We hear Talk about one Comprehensive Solution after another, grandiose Achievements, even Nobel Peace Prizes but, all these Things have proven, in Retrospect, to be, at best, just Band Aids.

Is there a Solution?  There doesn't seem to be one in Sight.  However, all Sides should think about the Fact that the gradual broadening in these Conflicts, now not just limited to the Israel/Palestinian Situation but also involving Countries, such as Egypt and Lybia which have basically become unstable after an ill thought out Policy of ,,Arab Spring'' pursued by Mrs. Clinton and others has simply succeeded in making the World a more dangerous Place to be.

The Cadence of these Conflicts is so rapid that one Event overshadows another and we can no longer even focus on some of the Conflicts which are still going on.

The Flareup of the Israeli Situation with Hamas in the Sinai Peninsula has just overshadowed Events in Syria where not much Attention is being paid anymore to what is going on.  Earlier, Syria overshadowed the Instability in Egypt and Lybia (where an American Ambassador lost his Life).  The Goings on in those Countries have pushed to the Back Stage whatever may be going on in Afghanistan, where, the Italians have left long ago, the French left this Week and the Germans as well as the British are getting ready to leave shortly.

A Dialogue, a serious Dialogue on what is going on and what may yet develop is indispensable.  We can only hope that the next Secretary of State President Obama will choose, will be more interested in opening and attracting Voices from All Sides to such a Dialogue, rather than ordering a new Airplane and focusing on setting a Record on how many Foreign Countries he or she will be visiting.

An Argument against the Secretary of State's One Dimensional Approach towards the Situation in Syria

News Organizations, including foreign ones, are reporting with more and more Frequency on the complicated Situation in Syria.

Below is a rather typical Example from NBC News and Reuters, which appeared on 23 August:

The Headline reads:

More foreign Fighters join rebels in Syria as regional Crisis deepens

The full Article including Photographs and Video can be seen at:

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/23/13431460-report-more-foreign-fighters-join-rebels-in-syria-as-regional-crisis-deepens?lite

What is difficult to understand, in View of this is the Secretary of State's One Dimensional Position regarding the Crisis which is essentially to expel President Assad.

To put it another Way, when resolving a Problem, it is necessary to consider what other Problem will be created as a Result of the Solution.

Recently, former Presidential National Security Adviser Dr. Zbigniew Brzeziński stated the Opinion that it is a prudent and cautious Policy Approach to have in Place what and who will follow, before toppling someone.  Recently, a Policy similar to the one in Syria, pursued in Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak was deposed has resulted in totally unpredictable Results which are still in the Process of unfolding.

The Question, must be emphasized, is not who Mubarak or Assad are or might be but what would follow their Places and to acknowledge the simple Fact that not knowing what will follow can be not only an unpleasant Solution but may lead to totally unpredictable Developments.

It occurs to this Writer that Dr. Brzeziński 's Opinion is one which should be considered and not dismissed out of Hand and the President is giving Weight to the Opinion of others, such as Vice President Biden, Dr. Brzeziński (who unfortunately is not serving in the Administration) as well as others who may be able to formulate something other than the One Dimensional Approach being championed by the Secretary of State.