Syria -- a difficult Choice

So, now, Syria has come to the Front Burner.  A Friend who wondered what would be the correct Choice on Syria also expressed the Inclination that to strike might be the preferred and logical Alternative.

It is a difficult Choice.  However, it does not appear that all of the necessary Variables of the Equation are available in order to make a correct Decision.  It might be appropriate to list just what the available Information is, at this Point in Time.  It also needs to be emphasized that the Information which is available, classified or not, is subject to re-Evaluation, literally, at a Moment's Notice as more Information becomes available.

Here is what we see so far:

The United Nations

It is clear that an International Intervention against Syria, limited or otherwise, is not possible within the Framework of the United Nations.  Russia and China are against a Security Council Resolution authorizing such Action and both have Veto Power.

This makes problematic any Action outside of the Scope of the United Nations, because such Action would be taken precisely because Approval cannot be obtained in the Security Council.  Simply put, one cannot easily make the Argument that the United States would go to the United Nations seeking Approval of such Action and, absent such Approval, it would act outside of the Scope of the United Nations or within another Framework or Coalition.

United States Domestic Policy Considerations

President Obama has set a courageous and correct Precedent by going to Congress to ask for Approval of a contemplated Military Strike.  We discussed the Implications of the Policy in an earlier Article.

Approval in Congress may be difficult but, it may prevail.  Straws in the Wind seem to indicate, however, that there might be some tough Sailing ahead.  Senator McCain, an outspoken Hawk in favor of Intervention, confronted some tough Questions at a Couple of „Town Meetings” which he has just held.  Polls seem to indicate that the Population as a whole is opposed to Intervention, limited as the President said it would be, by something around 48 to 28%.  There is a strange Coalition, composed of Liberal Democrats and Conservative Republicans which oppose Intervention of any Kind, leaving those who are in the „Mainstream” to carry the Weight and Responsibility for giving such Approval to the President.

The Situation in Syria

No one, including the Syrian Government disputes that they posess Chemical Weapons.

Less clear it is who used these Chemical Weapons in the latest Incident in which, according to credible Reports, approximately 1.400 People were killed, many of them, Children.  Truly a horrendous Act.  Some have suggested that the Rebels may have captured some of these Chemical Weapons and used them deliberately in order to entrap the Assad Government.

The United Nations Inspectors' Report will be available shortly and will become an important Factor if it corroborates the Intelligence Reports obtained by the United States establishing that the Assad Government used these Chemical Weapons against Civilians.

Even if the Rebels are aided as a Result of these contemplated Military Strikes, it is by no means a foregone Conclusion that Rebels associated with al-Qaeda or other Fundamentalist Movements would not inordinately benefit from them.  Interesting is the Position taken by a Veteran French Diplomat in an Open Letter to the French Parliament:

31 août 2013

Non aux frappes symboliques et de bonne conscience. Oui aux frappes utiles en Syrie.

31 August 2013

No to Symbolic Strikes (and for Conscience's Sake).  Yes to useful Strikes in Syria.

(Le Monde)

http://syrie.blog.lemonde.fr/2013/08/31/non-aux-frappes-symboliques-et-de-bonne-conscience-oui-aux-frappes-utiles-en-syrie/


(in French)

The Allies

Crucially important are the Allies who would be participating and/or supporting such Strikes.

So far, they are Canada, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and France.  After Canada, however, Things get murky when analyzing these Allies.  Saudi Arabia, which has Regional Political Considerations, that is one Thing.  Turkey which has been an arch-Enemy of Syria and would like nothing more than to have Syria destroyed, is another.  France; France has just announced that they will wait for the United Nations Report which seems to be an eminently sensible Thing to do.

Notably not joining in such a Coalition are Countries which normally can be counted upon:  Germany, Japan, Italy and, most importantly, the United Kingdom, where Prime Minister Cameron's Motion to join in such a Coalition was voted down by Parliament, putting his Government on a rather shaky Footing.

The Damage in Syria has been done.  There may be more Damage done if there are no Strikes.  However, the Likelihood appears to be that there will be more Damage done even if there are such Strikes and that Prudence and Patience are the best Choices as the Order of the Day.




 

The Problem caused by Wildfires and not so Wild Fires

 

Firefighters at Work in a Dangerous Environment

There is a Fire raging in and around the Yosemite Park in California, the oldest National Park, putting a Damper on Visitors as well as Vistas during Labor Day, the last Holiday of the Summer Season.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/28/20218572-yosemite-wildfire-blankets-region-with-choking-smoke?lite

Before this, there was a Fire in Arizona where 19 Firefighters („Hotshots”, we were not familiar with this Term before) some say, needlessly died.  Before that, there was a Fire in Idaho.  Before that, one in Colorado.  Before that, one in Wyoming and several others in California.  The List goes on and on.

All this Firefighting costs Money and Lives, „Blood and Treasure” as President Obama so eloquently put it in another Context.

And, obviously, Fires must be fought, before they cause greater Danger and Damage, irrespective if they were true „Wildfires” caused by some Act of Nature or caused by a malicious or negligent Human Act.  Such Fires can put at Risk the Electric Grid or the Water Supply System, to cite to Examples from what is happening at the „Ring Fire” (Yosmite), right now.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/25/20169597-raging-california-wildfire-threatens-more-of-yosemite?lite

Furthermore and this is just so we can see this in Perspective, if a Fire erupted in some major City or Metropolitan Area, be it New York, Los Angeles or Kansas City, just to name Examples, the Fire Department is responsible first, to save those Lives which are in Danger and then, to the extent possible, either the affected or the adjacent Property.

Carried further, this might seem to imply that there is a Responsibility which, in this Case, extends beyond Local, County and State Lines, to also save Property located in some of these Areas which are not only indescribably pictureques but also, very, very inaccessible.

Clearly, the Local, State and Federal Authorities have a Responsibility to defend and protect Infrastructure which happens to be located in an Area threatened by Fire.  However, when it comes to private Property, often built at the Expense of literally invading the Natural Habitat, for the Pleasure and Enjoyment of Few (and not for agricultural or industrial Purposes, such as Mining), a Reexamination of the Policy that Public Resources, Fire Equipment, Helicopters, DC 10 Jets, not to mention Human Lives, should be placed at such a Level of Risk and Cost, appears to merit re-examination.  The Cost of fighting These Fires, this, in Addition to the Cost in Human Lives, has been stratospheric.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/20/20110054-spending-to-fight-raging-wildfires-tops-1-billion?lite

When Lives are in Danger, a Rescue Effort should be made.  However, when it comes solely to saving Property, simply because it was built somewhere where it is so inaccessible,(sometimes only by Air, for Fire Fighting Purposes) a Re-Examination of Priorities could be in Order, so that those who choose, simply for their personal Pleasure and Enjoyment, to build lavish or even not so lavish Properties out in the Middle of Nowhere, know that they are doing so at their own Risk and at the Risk of their Fire Insurance Provider.

A Step in the Right Direction: President Obama requests a Congressional Resolution on Syria

Unexpectedly the News Wires carried the White House Announcement that President Obama has decided to seek Congressional Approval Prior to bombing Syria or engaging in any Type of Military Conflict with Syria.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/31/20270696-obama-will-seek-congressional-approval-before-any-military-action-against-syria?lite

This would appear to signal a signficant Departure from what has been the Norm for several Prior Administrations, Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton and, most recently and most disastruously, Bush Jr., who managed to get the United States not in one but two Wars concurrently, one of which is still being fought.

By a strict Interpretation of the Constitution, the Power to declare War rests with Congress. Article 1, Section 8,

„The Congress shall have Power...to declare War.”

This was something which was observed with fairly consistent Regularity until 1941, when Congress declared War on Japan (8 December 1941) followed by Declarations of War on Germany and Italy.  There was even a Time, including up to the Vietnam War Era and beyond, when, officially, such Events were not referred to as Wars but rather Conflicts; obviously, because no War had been declared by Congress and, how could you be involved in a War if there is no Declaration of War?  Duhhhhh!

Over the Course of History, going to War has never been an easy Thing to get into and, often, not an easy Thing to get out of either, the Latter, even more so.

Witness the still on going Conflict in Afghanistan, the Mess in Iraq which is still going on, or earlier, the Vietnam Saga.  Back to Vietnam in a Moment.  First an interesting Footnote.  Although nobody thinks of it in those Terms, from a purely technical Point of View, until today, there is no Peace Treaty which has ever been signed between the United States and Japan or, for that Matter, between the United States and Germany or Italy ending World War II.

Vietnam.  Vietnam was a Situation all its own.  The Involvement began with President Kennedy and deepened under President Johnson.  Faced with a broadening Conflict, President Johnson went to Congress and obtained a Resolution (much as President Obama appears to be seeking now), known as „The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution” (7 August 1964) and proceded to justify all further Actions during the Vietnam Conflict based upon that Resolution.  Only two Senators (Wayne Morse was one of them), voted against it.  There was considerable Debate afterwards over what the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution authorised and what it didn't but one Thing is indisputable; President Johnson had a Resolution.  Nobody after him bothered, even if it meant getting embroiled into Conflicts which were just as messy, or even messier, in Terms of what President Obama was later to refer to as „Blood and Treasure.”

 

The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution

The Situation in Syria is complex.  If one were to listen to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President Assad of Syria should forcefully be removed immediately, by the United States, of course, with Turkey in a „Supporting Role.”  But it may be easier to speak from Ankara, especially if one doesn't have to pay the Bills.

President Bashar al Assad of Syria is not an Angel.  Far from one.  The Mess in his Country is enormous.  So is the Mess in his neighboring Countries, Egypt, Iraq and, yes, Turkey as well, to name a Few.

Despite what the Evidence laid out before President Obama may indicate, the Situation is complex and laden with Perils.  Moreover, as suggested by German Philosopher and Journalist Peter Scholl-Latour, the Evidence may lead different People to reach different Conclusions and this, with the United Nations Inspectors' Report yet to be made (Peter Scholl-Latour characterises a possible Military Intervention in Syria as senseless and dangerous).

http://www.tz-online.de/aktuelles/politik/scholl-latour-analysiert-syrien-drama-der-militaerschlag-sinnlos-gefaehrlich-tz-3081517.html

(in German)

But, back to President Obama.  Earlier, Critics noted that after „drawing a Line in the Sand” with Syria, he was not left with any good Choices.

As President Obama gets ready to head to Moscow, where the Chinese and others, not to mention President Putin, will also be, to take part in the 2013 G-20 Conference, the Decision to seek a Congressional Resolution on Syria effectively moves the Target Date from last Thursday (as it was urged on President Obama by some), to at least September 9, when Congress is scheduled to return to Washington after a „well deserved” Vacation.  Prime Minister David Cameron who was required to get a Resolution of Approval from the British House of Commons before committing to Military Action against Syria, surprised many, including, not the least of all, himself, by failing to get it.

Perhaps it would be nice for someone to send a Note to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan informing him that if he wishes to remove President Bashar al Assad all on his own, he is welcome to do it but, otherwise, he just needs to cool his Heels and wait until September 9 or maybe a Little later.

Shifting from the Snowden Affair to the Real Debate

To briefly recapitulate the Events concerning the Snowden Affair:  After Days and Weeks of Salami Tactic News Developments, Edward Snowden left Hong Kong for Moscow on Sunday, 23 June 2013, his Final Destination still unclear.  Hong Kong jumped on a Technicality to rid itself of Snowden and thusly, together with and likely in Consultation with Mainland China (Hong Kong is under the ultimate Jurisdiction of The Mainland) passed on the hot Potato (or kicked the Can, one might say) into the Hands of Russia and President Putin.  President Putin and consequently Russia have been ambivalent on the Issue; they have refused to hand Snowden over to the United States, yet, at the same Time, they have not been particularly eager, if indeed, eager at all, to offer Asylum to Snowden.  Indeed, President Putin has come down, to a Degree, on the Side of the United States, stating that as a Condition for Snowden to be offered Asylum in Russia, Snowden would have to agree not to further „damage” the United States.  As recently as today, however, President Putin indicated that Snowden should ultimately leave Russia.  Russia's Motives are unclear and perhaps intentionally murky but it is difficult to imagine that it has not had at least partial Access to the Information which Snowden has; nobody knows what Kind of Information this is, perhaps not even The (Manchester) Guardian, which broke the Story and has been continuing to develop it but all Indications are that it is considerable.

Snowden had originally wanted to go to Iceland but he appears to have changed his Mind and now wants to go to South America.  He seems to have been influenced in this Decision by Julian Assange, of Wiki Leaks.  Julian Assange himself has received Asylum in Ecuador but cannot get there; he is confined to the Ecuadorian Embassy in London.  Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua (the Latter in Central America), seem to have offered him Asylum of one Sort or another but it is not easy for him to get there because any Commercial Flight might either have to fly through United States Air Space or be within reach of United States Jets which may force the Aircraft to land on United States Territory, thus effectively foiling Snowden's Escape.  There has been much made of the Fact that Snowden cannot fly because his U. S. Passport has been revoked; this Point is of questionable Validity because any Country which offers Asylum to Snowden can also issue a Laissez Passer (a simple Travel Document, literally meaning, let this Person pass).  People have and still do travel without a Passport (willingly and sometimes unwillingly) when extraordinary Conditions exist.

However, ultimately, we believe, the Fate of Mr. Snowden is not central to the Crux of this Issue.

So, moving on to the Second Aspect, it has been revealed that considerable Eavesdropping has taken place against Friends and Foe alike; Russia, Western European and South American Countries.  Many of these Countries are furious over the Revelations and demanding Explanations, which may be slow in coming.  This Issue, we believe, is not central to the Crux of the Issue, either.  Espionage has taken place since Time immemorial, both against Friend and Foe alike.  It is often a messy Business but everyone does it and everyone uses any and all Means at its Disposal to do it as best as possible.  Nearly all Countries, if indeed, not all Countries, conduct Espionage at some Level or another and, whoever is best at it comes up with the best Scoops.  Greeks did it, Persians did it, Romans did it, the French did it, moving along to more recent History, the Germans did it, the Allies did it and most certainly, the Chinese have done it all the Time and keep on doing it in the grandest of Styles.  So, while it may sound like a dirty Business and it is, everybody does it and, thusly, nobody should be surprised by it.  In the old Days, when caught, Spies were hanged or, as Things became more modern, shot; these Days, they are usually sent to Jail or traded for other Spies.  At Times, Spy Trade become a flourishing Business, actually (Take, for Example, the Case of former Russian Spy Anna Chapman-yes, she is Russian, who supposedly even offered to marry Snowden).

 

Former Russian Spy Anna Chapman who was „traded”

To the Question, what is the central Crux of this Issue, we believe, the Answer is simple:  based on Snowden's Revelations and other Information, one Needs to ask, what are the Powers and, indeed, the Boundaries of a Country (in this Case, the United States) to gather indiscriminate Information on most if not all of its Citizens.

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/09/18863448-lawmakers-americans-dont-know-how-carefully-the-government-is-watching?lite

It is also interesting to note the evolving Role not only of the NSA but also of at least one Private Corporation, Booz Allen Hamilton, which was (perhaps it still is) a noted Accounting Firm (in plain English, Bookkeepers, Beancounters), which has gotten into a Business which does not have much (if anything at all) to do with Accounting.  Sorta like Lawyers getting into Brain Surgery, one might say.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/15/18940842-growth-of-intel-outsourcing-no-secret-but-now-congress-taking-notice?lite

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/11/18901089-leaked-secrets-pose-a-risk-for-booz-allen-where-secrecy-means-billions?lite

President Obama correctly pointed out that one has to strike a Balance between Security and Privacy; the Question is, if this vast amount of Information which is being collected from the American Public markedly increases the Security of ordinary Americans and if so, by how much.

Recent Experiences, those in Communist Countries and other Dictatorships indicate that ultimately, total (or nearly total) gathering of Information from the Populace can be a suffocating Experience.  According to the Explanations offered by James Clapper, the Information Gathering Activites of the NSA are not only legal but have been authorized by Congress.

Many disagree.  A Reading of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Act,

http://uscode.house.gov/download/pls/50C36.txt

does not, we don't think, lead all of us to reach the same Conclusion which Mr. Clapper (and others), seem to have reached.  Many Congressmen were not familiar, if familiar at all, with everything that the NSA has been doing, even though Mr. Clapper assures us that every Member of Congress was debriefed on the Activites of the National Security Agency.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/07/18827047-who-is-behind-the-snooping-and-how-long-has-it-been-going-on?lite

Of Concern are also the Activities of the FISA Court, the secret Federal Court to which the NSA goes for Approval, although, we assume that they did not even have to go to the FISA Court for the broad intercepting Activities which appear to involve a huge Amount (if not most) of all Telephone Conversations and eMails.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/07/us/in-secret-court-vastly-broadens-powers-of-nsa.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20130707

Constitutional Concerns have been raised on the Issue of the FISA Court (which most People did not even know existed, until recently), having non adversarial Proceedings and what Appeals, if any, can be made.

Of further Concern is the broad trawling of Data (which the Government calls Meta Data) which, as the Word Trawling suggest, is essentially nothing more than a Fishing Expedition.  The Concern has been expressed that if one can use the Constitution to justify that Type of Activity (the Process has not been subject to Constitutional Review), then a Lot of other Things could conceivably be justified which otherwise, one might have been reluctant to justify.

It should further be noted, in this Context, that, according to recent Polls, most American People oppose this Kind of Wholesale Data Gathering, Meta Data, Trawling, Fishing Expedition, whatever one ultimately calls it.

The Constitution of the United States is a wonderful Document; it was written more than 200 Years ago by some brilliant People who could not have possibly imagined what the Country they were founding will some Day look like.

Many have argued that the Constitution should be treated as a dynamic Document, which is to say, a Document which should be interpreted in accordance with the changing and evolving Conditions which prevail today.  That may be true; it may also be appropriate in many Instances; however, at the End of the Day, we are still left with that relatively simple Document; the Constitution of the United States and one should be careful, we believe, not to equate Dynamism with Evisceration.

Why don't they tell us?

There has been a steady Stream of Bad News from Washington lately, having to do with Surveillance, Privacy and related Issues.

There was the Associated Press Reporters Story.

Then there were the IRS Stories, involving, of all People, some Tea Party Groups seeking Tax Exempt Status.

Overnight, last Night, the Story regarding the Gathering of Telephone Call Logs by the National Security Agency from Verizon broke out.  Quickly rumours spread that other Carriers, notably A T & T are involved also.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/06/18796204-nsa-snooping-has-foiled-multiple-terror-plots-feinstein?lite

Now it further appears that an enormous Amount of Internet Traffic, eMails, Web Site Visits, we don't know exactly the Extent of it, is under Surveillance also.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/us/nsa-verizon-calls.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20130607&_r=0

http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/06/18809021-sources-us-intelligence-agencies-tap-servers-of-top-internet-companies?lite

There is Legal Precedent, for those of us who have studied Law for having serious Concerns regarding something called „Overreach.”  The Reason the Government has given for obtaining Secret Court Orders for such extraordinary Surveillance, unprecedented in American History is Terrorism.  And, Terrorism is a serious Issue, witness the recent Events in Boston, not to mention 9/11 and everything else that has happened in between.  Nonetheless, many are beginning to look at whether the War against Terrorism can be achieved without resorting to Secrecy when undertaking such extraordinary Measures which many also view, correctly, as Invasions of Privacy; something which the American Constitution and American Tradition have fiercely guarded for over Two Centuries and something which has become a Model, an Ideal, a Beacon for the Rest of the World.  In other Words, the War against Terrorism can be used to justify many Government Actions but not all of them in this Context.

To be sure, the Roots of these Kinds of Actions go back to the (George W.) Bush Administration.  But President's Obama's Administration has to shoulder the Responsibility and, right now, it appears more and more likely that Attorney General Eric Holder will be asked to fall on his own Sword.  But that may only be a Stop Gap Measure unless President Obama confronts the Issue and also establishes a Model, a Policy for successive Administrations to follow.

The simple Question is this:  why don't they tell us beforehand?

Senator Lindsey Graham (R., North Carolina) stated today that he is himself a Verizon Customer and if the Government was keeping track on his Calls to Waziristan, we think he said Waziristan, he would not have a Problem with it.  Neither would we or anyone else, we don't think, but would it not be appropriate to tell Senator Graham and everyone else that the National Security Agency would be doing this?  Then everybody knows and understands that Telephone Calls, Internet Traffic, whatever, is being subjected to some Sort of Surveillance and that can be the End of that, rather than the Facts coming out Slice by Slice in what one might refer to as a „Salami Tactic.”

Likewise, it may all be well and good that Senator Dianne Feinstein (D., California) states that all this was cleared and approved in Advance Years ago but, the Issue seems to be of sufficient Magnitude to where one has the Right to ask, why were the American People not informed this was going on?  It is difficult, we believe, to formulate an Argument that Secrecy adds Value to the Program; Carrier Pigeons and other antiquated Methods are not alternatives which Terrorists and Enemies of the United States could use with much Success.

 

Secretary of State John Kerry - Attempting to diffuse Tensions with North Korea and Elsewhere

Former Massachusetts Senator, now Secretary of State John Kerry, was selected by President Obama at the Beginning of the Year to succeed Hillary Clinton's turbulent Reign.

John Kerry had come very close to becoming President of the United States, far closer than Hillary Clinton.  He lost the Election to George W. Bush in 2004 by only 34 or 35 Electoral Votes.  But lost he did and now, as soon as he became Secretary of State, one could sense the Difference in Tone which he established from the Onset.  He went to Afghanistan, an unsteady Ally which, in the Words of President Obama cost the United States „Blood and Treasure” in a non ostentatious Military Plane, rather than the Luxury Jetliner which Secretary Clinton relentlessly used during her Tenure.

 John Kerry arriving on a Military Plane in Kabul, Afghanistan for Talks with President Karzai

(February 2013)

Hillary Clinton arriving on the State Department's Luxurious Jetliner in Kabul, Afghanistan

for the Inauguration of President Karzai 

(Archive Photo)

Instead of „lecturing” President Karzai and letting a bad Situation becoming worse, Secretary of State Kerry showed real Diplomacy by seeking to calm down not only President Karzai but the entire Afghanistan Situation which remains extremely volatile and one in which the United States has decided, wisely, not to aimlessly throw any more „Blood and Treasure.”

But the Statemanship of Secretary of State Kerry and what distinguishes him sharply from former Secretary Clinton has become even more evident in recent Days, with the rapidly escalating Tensions with North Korea, where a Dictatorial Regime makes anything possible.

As Korean Dictator Kim Jong-Un unleashed one Verbal Escalation after another against the United States (and against South Korea as well), the Administration initially followed a Clintonesque „Tit for Tat” Series of Responses.  Then, the Secretary of State intervened.

He wisely saw that nothing good can come out of this, with Kim Jong-Un possibly willing to risk it all, including Nuclear Weapons, for a Conflict which the United States does not want and does not need.  Following a Series of uninterrupted Escalations and Threats, which still continue, North Korea has closed the Rajin-Sonbong Special Economic Zone to South Korea and, on Friday 5 April recommended that Germany and Russia, among other Countries, evacuate their Embassies in Pyonyang, the Capital of North Korea (Interestingly, we do not know if North Korea has asked China to evacuate its Embassy).

The Tone was neutralized; the United States Response was that Dialogue is still possible and that North Korea should consider taking down the Tone of its Escalations an Octave or two.  Secretary of State Kerry's thinking, we believe, is clear; obviously, North Korea could be defeated, „Bombed into the Stone Age” as the Late Senator B. Morris Goldwater may have put it some Decades ago but the Question is, does the United States need another Mess on its Hands.  We think Secretary Kerry may have quickly looked over the Situation (or perhaps he had done so long before he became Secretary of State); with the unfinished Business left in Afghanistan, a Mess in Iraq which President George W. Bush generously dumped on the Lap of his Successor and diplomatic Blunders by his Predecessor, Secretary Clinton in Egypt and elsewhere, he chose, wisely, to walk the higher Moral Ground, save Money and act with Deliberation.

One more Thing...Secretary of State Kerry, following the Example set by his Boss, President Obama, has decided to donate 5% of his Salary to Charitable Causes.

This stands in glaring Contrast with Secretary Clinton's Husband, former President Clinton, who, it is thought, amassed Millions (some say Billions) through lucrative Dealmaking with Foreign Leaders whom he had met, yeah...when he was President of the United States. 

Iran - Developing News - Rumours about an Explosion at the Fordo Nuclear Facility

There are developing News out of Iran, as yet unconfirmed nor reported by the Mainstream News.  The Vitznau News has learned that on Monday, on Day before the Israeli Election, there was a huge Explosion at the Fordo Nuclear Enrichment Facility near the City of Qum in Iran, about 150 Km (90 Miles or so) South of Teheran.

This is a massive Facility used for Uranium Enrichment built deep into a Mountain and considered to be impenetrable to Bomb Attacks by Israel.  Israel has championed the Argument that Iran's Nuclear Enrichment Capabilities must be taken out since before the End of the (George W.) Bush Administration and throughout the Obama Administration.

The Facility has reportedly been cut off from the outside World and about 200 People are trapped or sealed inside.

More Details can be found (in German) at the following Site:

http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article113155950/Experte-meldet-schwere-Explosion-in-Atomanlage.html

(The Newspaper ,,Die Welt")

and, in English, at the following Site:

http://www.wnd.com/2013/01/irans-fordo-hit-by-explosion/

WND is an American News Website affiliated with the Right.

Whereas Stories which appear on various Websites such as WND sometimes turn out to be correct and sometimes not, usually, ,,Die Welt'' has a Reputation of publishing Stories which sooner or later turn out to have been accurate.



 

Fiscal Cliff

Recent Reports suggest that soon, a Family of Four will be paying $ 25.000,00 for Health Insurance annually and that, with less Coverage and higher Deductibles.

While the Affordable Care Act (so called Obamacare) is a Step in the Right Direction, it is, some suggest, not nearly enough to bring under Control Medical Costs.

Various Statistics reveal the following:

§ Medical Costs in the United States are the highest in the World.  The Second Runner Up is at less than half.

§ Doctors in the United States earn the highest Incomes of any Doctors anywhere, so much so that Doctors from less affluent Countries who have a Medical Education in English (it is considerably more difficult to pass the Boards with a non English Medical Education) are clamoring to get a Foothold in the United States and practice, yes, practice Medicine, of course.

§ Despite all this, Life Expectancy in the United States is just about Neck in Neck with Life Expectancy in, of all Places, some place like Cuba.  There are a Multitude of Reasons for this, of course, including Dietary Factors but, still, one would expect more, given the Costs of Health Insurance and Health Care.

§ A Common Medical Procedure, known as an MRI costs, on Average, according to some Statistics, $ 2.500,00 in the United States.  It can be performed at some Outpatient Clinics for as low as $ 600,00 and one Reporter recently found a Hospital in Boston which charges in Excess of $ 7.000,00 for this exact same Procedure.  Health Insurance Companies have Contracts under which they pay less (why should people who pay for Medical Care out of their own Pocket have to pay more is a Question which deserves being raised and be examined on its own Merits).  The more interesting Thing, though, is that the same exact Procedure, an MRI costs approximately $ 160,00 in Germany, France and Italy.  In Japan, a Country not exactly known for low Costs, it costs $ 60,00.  They all use the same exact Equipment, manufactured by either Siemens or GE and, at least two of the four Countries above, Germany and Japan, are not exactly known for low Wages.

What is going to be compromised between Mr. Obama and Mr. Boehner with regard to the ,,Fiscal Cliff,'' whatever that means, is yet to be revealed and it is probably not known by either of them at this Moment.

However, one Item which has come up is the new Medicare Taxes which will be going into Effect 1 January 2013, as a Result of Legislation passed by Congress and signed by Mr. Obama.  This Legislation provides, no, it does not provide for new Taxes, it establishes the Provision that Medicare Taxes should continue on Wages in Excess of $200.000,00 (for Single Taxpayers) and $ 250.000,00 (for Married Taxpayers).

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/11/15846903-democrats-seek-delay-in-one-obamacare-tax-increase?lite

Suddenly, this Provision has now come under Scrutiny and may be sacrificed as part of the Negotiations to avoid the so called ,,Fiscal Cliff.''  We do not understand this Point.

The Congress and the President of the United States can decide what the Obligations (including the financial Obligations) of the Federal Government will be on a Year to Year Basis.  Some of these Obligations are inescapable, they are either dictated by Law or by Contracts (such as Debt Interest, for Example).  How are Wage Earners who make more than $ 200.000,00 or $ 250.000,00 ,,hurting'' the Economy by paying 1,45% of their Wages for Medicare Tax on Income above that Amount?

Paranthetically, another Tax which is equally regressive is the Social Security Tax, currently at 4,2% for Employees, but only on the First $110.000,00 of their Wages.  Translated, that means, of course, that People who get huge Salaries, sometimes $ 500.000,00, sometimes $ 5.000.000,00 or even more, simply pay that $ 4.000,00 or so in Social Security Tax and then are 4,2% ahead for every Dollar they earn from $110.000,00 forward.

One Thing is apparent.  With this Kind of Manœvering, if it comes into Play, very little is going to get accomplished.  And the Can will be kicked forward.

The Danger of War

Fifty Years ago, if one were to ask someone on the Street, be it in New York, Washington, Moscow, Paris, London and, yes, probably even in Beijing (then referred to as Peking or Pekin), People would have said, most likely, that the greatest Danger of the Possibility of a War comes from Berlin.  There were good Reasons for this Line of Logic.  Although the Devastation of World War II which killed, according to some Estimates, 45 Million People (25 Million of them Soviets/Russians) in total had ended, there was no Peace Treaty formally ending World War II.  The City of Berlin was divided by a terrifying Wall, Germany was divided by an equally terrifying Fence and East and West (in Europe and in Asia, too) faced each other, in many Spots, through the Barrel of a Shotgun.

As of today, there has still been no Treaty signed formally ending World War II.  Technically, the United States, Russia (as Successor to the Soviet Union), England and France are still at War with Germany, Japan and Italy.  But nobody takes seriously, or even in Jest the Possibility of a Conflict in this Theatre.

In historical Terms, 50 Years is a short Time but in this Span of a little more than 50 Years, the increased and continuing Danger of Conflict in The Middle East has been widening not only in Amplitude but also territorially.  This Conflict which was initially (after the End of World War II) a Conflict basically encompassing the Debate between Israel and the Palestinians has now, under the Banner of Allah and Islam enveloped Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, Pakistan, Lybia and, with perhaps more concern that has been accorded until now, Turkey as well.

Ethnically, the Mix is extremely diverse, involving not only Israeli Jews on the one Side but Pakistanis, Turks, Kurds, Persians and Arabs of various Colourations (including but limited to Sunnis and Shiites), to mention just a Few.  Wars costing Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, if not more, severalfold the Cost of World War II have been fought by Western Powers, including but not limited only to the United States.  Is there an End in Sight?  The current Conflict between Israel and the Hamas Faction of the Palestinians casts Doubt on that Hope.

We hear Talk about one Comprehensive Solution after another, grandiose Achievements, even Nobel Peace Prizes but, all these Things have proven, in Retrospect, to be, at best, just Band Aids.

Is there a Solution?  There doesn't seem to be one in Sight.  However, all Sides should think about the Fact that the gradual broadening in these Conflicts, now not just limited to the Israel/Palestinian Situation but also involving Countries, such as Egypt and Lybia which have basically become unstable after an ill thought out Policy of ,,Arab Spring'' pursued by Mrs. Clinton and others has simply succeeded in making the World a more dangerous Place to be.

The Cadence of these Conflicts is so rapid that one Event overshadows another and we can no longer even focus on some of the Conflicts which are still going on.

The Flareup of the Israeli Situation with Hamas in the Sinai Peninsula has just overshadowed Events in Syria where not much Attention is being paid anymore to what is going on.  Earlier, Syria overshadowed the Instability in Egypt and Lybia (where an American Ambassador lost his Life).  The Goings on in those Countries have pushed to the Back Stage whatever may be going on in Afghanistan, where, the Italians have left long ago, the French left this Week and the Germans as well as the British are getting ready to leave shortly.

A Dialogue, a serious Dialogue on what is going on and what may yet develop is indispensable.  We can only hope that the next Secretary of State President Obama will choose, will be more interested in opening and attracting Voices from All Sides to such a Dialogue, rather than ordering a new Airplane and focusing on setting a Record on how many Foreign Countries he or she will be visiting.

Correction: $ 4 Billion, not $ 1 Billion

In our last Writing, we reported that Cost of the Presidential Election (counting Money spent by both Parties), exceeded $ 1 Billion, an Amount most People would simply find as staggering.  However, as more Figures keep pouring they are suggesting that the Amount spent most certainly was closer to $ 2 Billion.  Some Estimates put the Amount spent (including the Money spent by Political Action Committees, which are not directly tied to the Campaigns) to $ 4 Billion.

Still other Reports suggest that, on the Average, approximately $ 20,00 was spent for each Vote Cast.

Some of us may remember Senator Everett McKinley Dirksen, who hailed from a Town with the improbable Name of Pekin, Illinois and who was also a Playwright (notably, ,,Chinese Love'') who said, ,,A Billion Dollars here, a Billion Dollars there, pretty soon you are talking abour real Money!''

These Kinds of Sums of Money, wantonly spent, some might say, by both Candidates and those who supported them, sometimes call into Question the Resolution and Determination which will be required by the winning Candidate, Mr. Obama, to deal with the Challenges ahead.

The immediate Issue facing the Nation at this Time (and we are not dismissing further ones down the Horizon) is the so called ,,Fiscal Cliff'' which must be dealt, rather than ,,kicking the Can forward'' which is what most likely will happen.

Mr. Romney, despite his Rhetoric, did not really have a Plan for dealing with the financial Challenges which face this Country.  However, Mr. Obama does not have one either.  And, neither does the Republican House of Representatives which is determined to fight him Tooth and Nail on allowing the 10% Cut for High Income Tax  Brackets to expire.

In recent Years, ,,Borrow from China'' has been the Solution.  In a very real Sense, China has even financed the ill fated and poorly thought out Wars that Mr. Bush initiated in Afghanistan and Iraq and which, although being wound down, still represent an enormous Drain on the Economy.  When it comes to certain Things, Costs are not really so easy to cut, even when the Project is brought to an End (Take, for Example, in Iraq, an Embassy employing 15.000 People, the largest Embassy in the World for any Country).

But the Strategy ,,Borrow from China'' may be fraught with Peril.  The Chinese have been willing to lend and they may still be willing to lend, even at ,,Basement'' Interest Rates.  However, it may well be that the Chinese may soon come to the Point where they cannot lend anymore in order to feed such a voracious Apetite for Deficits, simply because, they won't have any more Money to lend, no matter which Way they ,,manipulate'' their Currency.
 

The $ 1 Billion Presidential Election: One Billion Dollars and 10 Days to go

Way back then, way back when, in the 1960's an American writer by the Name of Theodore H. White came up with a brilliant Idea:  write a Book each four Years entitled ,,The Making of the President."  The Idea met with great Success.  Theodore H. White, who first wrote ,,The Making of the President 1960'' about the historic Kennedy-Nixon Campaign, went on to write Sequels about subsequent Presidential Elections, none as succesful as his First One, but still, all of them succesful enough.  Today, this Tradition seems to have faded.

So, one wonders, what insightful Issue might be noteworthy enough to bring to the Forefront if one were to write a Book titled ,,The Making of the President 2012.''  Several Campaign Issues which have been played up by the two Candidates come to mind.

§  Jobs - this is an Issue that impacts every American.

§  The Economy - again, this is an Issue that also impacts every American as well.

Other Issues, be they in the Area of Foreign Policy, Women's Rights, Homosexual Rights, Minority and Immigration Issues, are all Policy Issues, which, while being important enough and likely to affect the Outcome of the Election in a profound Manner, are still issues which, directly, ipso Facto, do not directly and imminently affect every American in the same Way that Jobs and the Economy (Two Facets of one and the same Issue) do.

However, there is another Aspect which does affect each and every American and, at that, in a profound Way and that is the Deficit.  Currently at $ 16 Trillion (it was 11 Trillion when President George W. Bush left Office) it is projected to rise in the upcoming Four Years, regardless of which Candidate wins the coveted Office.

http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/15/14453514-whether-its-obama-or-romney-either-will-face-huge-obstacles-on-economy?lite

And, aside from Generalities which are difficult to pin in Terms of tangible Policies, neither Candidate has a stark, aggressive and palpably effective Plan to deal with this Morass.  Even more worrysome is the Fact that the Federal Debt is held largely in foreign Hands, China, surprisingly, Japan (No. 2), according to several Reports and then followed by other Countries.

More worrysome is the Fact that under Mr. Bernanke's Policies, the Federal Deficit has become more susceptible to short Term Effects, this, because of Mr. Bernanke's Implementation of something he calls ,,Operation Twist'' under which the Fed is retiring as much as possible of the Long Term Debt, in exchange for Short Term Debt at somewhat lower Interest Rates.

This, of course, has the Effect of reducing, in the Short Term, the Federal Deficit which would be worse if the Interest Rates paid by the Federal Government were higher rather than lower, as they would become and are becoming, under the Policy of swapping higher Interest Long Term Debt for (slightly) lower Interest Short Term Debt, sometimes as short as a Month, a Week, or even a Day.

http://bottomline.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/11/14370868-washington-must-avoid-fiscal-cliff-goldmans-blankfein-warns?lite

However, there is serious Danger in the Policy being pursued by Mr. Bernanke.  Any Increase in the Interest Rates (on which the Fed has mercilessly kept the Lid on), would be ruinous for the Federal Debt.  Higher Interest Rates would push Interest Expenses into the Stratosphere, worsen the Deficit and Situations like that are ocurring right now not only in Greece, but also in places like Italy and Spain.  Mr. Bernanke does not tell us what Plan he has to deal with these Dangers and, what the Heck?  He wants to retire after his current Term expires.  Let someone else deal with that Problem.

 

But for the Presidential Candidates, there is another Aspect.  The President of the United States, or an Aspirant to that High Office, the Highest Office in the Land can set an Example.  An Example of a Modecum of Fiscal Discipline.  And, Mr. Obama, who has been unable to exercise this and Mr. Romney who claims he has ,,Experience'' in Fiscal Discipline have both set an unglorious Example:  this will be the First Presidental Election which will cost more than $ 1 Billion, which, as everyone else knows, is $ 1000 Million, that is to say, the Equivalent of $ 3,00 being spent for each Man, Woman and Child in the United States; that includes everyone, voting or non voting.

A significant Part of this Expenditure is yet to happen and it is about to happen now:  in the last 10 hectic Days of the Election, on an unprecedented Advertising Blitz by both Candidates.  That means, the Candidates would not be spending the Bulk of this Money on explaining or discussing the Issues which affect the Nation but rather, spending the Money on Advertising of one Sort of another.  Someone even before Theodore H. White said that the campaign for President of the United States is akin to selling a Box of Cereal on Television.

 http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/17/14511630-ad-spending-tops-800-million-on-pace-to-reach-or-come-close-to-1-billion?lite

What Confidence can this Kind of senseless Spending instill in the Electorate that the succesful Candidate Ten Days from now, is going to have what it takes and it is going to take a Lot, an awful Lot, to bring Sense and Reason to a Financial Mumbo Jumbo built Brick by Brick by President Reagan with his Supply Side Economics Theories, President Clinton with his ,,Take the Money from here, put it there and balance the Budget'' Theories,  President Bush with his we can do two Wars at the same Time and do everything else at the same Time Theories, Mr. Greenspan with his ,,Irrational Exuberence'' Theories,  Mr. Bernanke with his ,,Operation Twist'' Theories and, and...Mr. Obama who, regardless of what one's Opinion might be of him, certainly was faced, for the last Four Years with a nagging Question:  how do we get out of this Mess which took so long to create?

One Way, admittedly four Years later that both he and Mr. Romney could have done was:  don't spend this Kind of ,,Irrational Exuberance'' Money to be elected President.

The Problem with President Clinton

The Problem the Democrats have with President Clinton, but do not or do not want to recognize, at least not yet, is similar to the Problem Republicans have with President Reagan but, it may be, that Republicans do not recognize their Problem, not yet anyway, either.  Certainly, the Republicans do not want to recognize it, though.

However, President Reagan has slowly began to fade from Memory, that ,,Great Communicator'' who had to have ,,Handlers'' when it came to Presidential Debates.  President Reagan caused enormous and, one might say, irreparable Damage by stimulating the Economy with enormous Deficits which expanded the Economy, created a Lot of rich People but also started the Build Up of an unprecedented Debt Load.  After a brief Hiatus during the 4 Year Presidency of President George H. W. Bush (Bush ,,41'', who called ,,Reaganomics'' ,,Voodoo Economics'') President Clinton not only continued President Reagan's Tradition but even praised it.

So now President Clinton whose salacious Activities with Monica Lewinsky have long ago faded from Memory, he and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton now boast, he knew how to balance the Budget.  Yeah, he did.  But how he did it is the more interesting Part.  President Clinton took the Postal Service Retirement Fund ($ 7 Billion) as well as the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds (which were enormous Sums of Money) and threw them into the General Budget thusly creating a huge but temporary Infusion of Cash and, ,,Poof!,'' it looked as if the Budget was ,,balanced,'' but, again, only temporarily.  Now, not only the U. S. Postal Service but, far more worrying, Social Security and Medicare are in dire Straits.  Everyone is scared of raising the Payroll Tax Deduction Ceiling (now at $ 110,000 for People earning $ 110 Million, or $ 11 Million or even $ 1,1 Million because it would ,,discourage'' the Creation of new Jobs?).  President Clinton's Two Terms were then followed by the two economically disastrous Terms of President George W. Bush (Bush ,,43,'' the Dubya) and during his Term and after that, we all know what happened.  The Federal Deficit now adds up to $ 16 Trillion, give or take a Couple of Pennies and nobody has come up with a Plan of any Kind as to how this Deficit might begin to be retired.  Statements by the two Presidential Candidates, President Obama and former Governor Romney are about how they plan to reduce the Size of future Deficits and eventually reach (one hopes) a Balanced Budget, if...if this and if that and if something else, but, without raising Taxes.  Go figure.

So, when Mr. Clinton claims that the Economy is not ,,hunky dory'' but on the Mend,

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/19/14567670-clinton-lauds-obama-says-economy-not-hunky-dory-but-on-the-mend?lite

it is reasonable to question his Authority at coming up with such Statements.  Actually, with the Congressional Impasse over Cuts and Taxes and with ,,Automatic Sequestrations'' being a Problem which, no matter which way it is resolved or remains unresolved, the adverse Consequences on the Economy, the Problems which will be faced by the President after he takes the Oath of Office on 20 January 2013, no Matter if it is the current President or the Republican Challenger, will be daunting, very, very daunting, indeed.  And that, while at the same Time having to deal with Mr. Bernanke's untested Theories about ,,Quantitative Easing,'' ,,Operation Twist'' and who knows what else that Mr. Bernanke might come up with.

Sometimes, we can overcomplicate Things in spite of ourselves.  The basic Truth is that just like the Republican Party is not the Party of Ronald Reagan, it is the Party of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt; equally, the Democratic Party, it would be good to remember, is not the Party of Bill Clinton; it is the Party of Thomas Jefferson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt.  President Clinton said, when he first ran for President, ,,It's the Economy, Stupid!'' and he was right.  One could have also said at the same Time and certainly can say it now:  ,,Keep it simple, (Stupid!)''  ,,Do not solve a Problem by creating another Problem.''

 

Google and Apple

There was some ,,terrible'' News about Google (GOOG, NASDAQ) today.  Somebody at R. R. Donnelley and Company (definitely not a ,,Star Quality'' Company, a true Has Been) seems to have made a Mistake or somebody at Google made a Mistake in reporting Google Earnings without the proper Orchestration and Google Stock immediately took a Tumble of more than 10% in Seconds.  Google, obviously a Company with Clout, was not only able to call NASDAQ and get through but also able to demand and succeed in having the Trading of the Stock suspended until it ,,corrected'' the News but not before $ 26 Billion went down the Toilet.

http://marketday.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/18/14540754-google-error-triggers-pending-larry-twitter-meme?lite

The Good News is that Google has the right Telephone Numbers and knows whom to call at NASDAQ.  The not so good News is that the Google Earnings took a Tumble and a certain Kind of Reality is setting in:  spectacular Earnings for Newstarts can often be achieved and even continue for a long Time but not forever.  By acquiring Motorola, Google has entered the ,,Mainstream'' and in the Mainstream Things are not as simple as for a Start Up; even for a giant Start Up which Google is.

Entertaining and amusing to some is that Google seemed to have used ,,Smart Phones'' for the Transmission of at least some of the Information to R. R. Donnelley and/or to the SEC; apparently, Google Higher Ups are busy using their Android Smart Phones and have fallen out of the Habit of just sitting down at some Desk and doing their Work the ,,Old Fashioned Way;''  proofing, reading and re reading something that is sent out because once it is sent out, it becomes just that; sent.  Such ,,Work'' is not for Big People; it is only for the little People, it seems.

But Google is not alone in this Stratosphere.  The Darling of the Stock Market right now is and has been for some Time, Apple Computer (AAPL, NASDAQ), not all that long ago a nearly bankrupt Company.  Apple rose from the Ashes under the masterful Hand of Steve Jobs, who backed his creative Innovations with equally creative Marketing and who went after its Competitors with ruthless Vengeance.  Trouble is, there are Dozens of Cell Phones and ,,Tablets'' which work really just as fine as Apple and one can sustain this Kind of Sizzle for only so long.  Steve Jobs masterfully maintained the Apple Legend for far longer than any savvy Marketing Executive would have thought possible but his untimely Death merely accelerated the Inevitable and Tim Cook...well, Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs and the First One who should know this and hopefully does, is Tim Cook himself.  Tim Cook overshot the Mark with the Introduction of the latest iPhone and overshot it badly; apparently the Orders for 5 Million iPhones were not 5 Million; and just because Tim Cook said there would be 5 Million iPhones sold did not cause Peopole to snatch those iPhones fast enough just to prove Tim Cook was right in predicting the Number of iPhones to be sold.  Apple Stock did not fare as badly as Google Stock did; it went down only 8,5%.  Other Warts, which were dismissed during Steve Jobs' Reign, keep raising their ugly Heads:  the Working Conditions at Foxconn which is the primary Producer of iPhones, the Lawsuits which Apple is pursuing against everybody in Sight (including the $ 1 Billion Judgment Apple was awarded against Samsung, now on Appeal) and more.

Still, none of the Above really points to the Crux of the Problem here.  With the American Economy in severe Trouble, with neither Mr. Obama or Mr. Romney having put out a credible Plan as to how they are going to pull the Economy out if its Tailspin, the more relevant Question should really have to do with just how many Jobs are these two Companies creating or even sustaining in the United States.

The Reader should be aware that we are talking here about two enormous Giants; one, Apple,the largest Company in the World in Terms of Capitalization.  Apple is bigger than General Motors although, it should be noted, General Motors is no longr General Motors but Apple is bigger than Exxon, too and, sometimes, that stretches the Limits of Credulity.

The Answer is that these two Companies employ very, very few People in the United States and, really, not that many Worldwide either.  Of Course, Investors on the Stock Market are not interested in creating Jobs; they are interested in making Money and that may not offer any Benefit to the Economy, regardless of what Mr. Bernanke thinks, but, as long as they are not breaking any Laws, there is no Choice but to tolerate their Practices.

However, the Question should be asked why the Focus of the News Media on these two Companies and, possibly, others of less Significance.  We are not talking about Trade Publications but rather, Mainstream.  These two Companies, which have amassed Billions and Zillions have not added any significant Jobs to the American Economy and they are not going to.  We, as a Nation, can be more mature.  We can pay less Importance to what Google and Apple do or think or even earn and pay more Attention how to create or ,,re-create'' Jobs which have evaporated, possibly, in Part, due to the Actions of these two Companies and focus on some of the real, acute and crucial Problems which this Country is facing today, economically.