So, now, Syria has come to the Front Burner. A Friend who wondered what would be the correct Choice on Syria also expressed the Inclination that to strike might be the preferred and logical Alternative.
It is a difficult Choice. However, it does not appear that all of the necessary Variables of the Equation are available in order to make a correct Decision. It might be appropriate to list just what the available Information is, at this Point in Time. It also needs to be emphasized that the Information which is available, classified or not, is subject to re-Evaluation, literally, at a Moment's Notice as more Information becomes available.
Here is what we see so far:
The United Nations
It is clear that an International Intervention against Syria, limited or otherwise, is not possible within the Framework of the United Nations. Russia and China are against a Security Council Resolution authorizing such Action and both have Veto Power.
This makes problematic any Action outside of the Scope of the United Nations, because such Action would be taken precisely because Approval cannot be obtained in the Security Council. Simply put, one cannot easily make the Argument that the United States would go to the United Nations seeking Approval of such Action and, absent such Approval, it would act outside of the Scope of the United Nations or within another Framework or Coalition.
United States Domestic Policy Considerations
President Obama has set a courageous and correct Precedent by going to Congress to ask for Approval of a contemplated Military Strike. We discussed the Implications of the Policy in an earlier Article.
Approval in Congress may be difficult but, it may prevail. Straws in the Wind seem to indicate, however, that there might be some tough Sailing ahead. Senator McCain, an outspoken Hawk in favor of Intervention, confronted some tough Questions at a Couple of „Town Meetings” which he has just held. Polls seem to indicate that the Population as a whole is opposed to Intervention, limited as the President said it would be, by something around 48 to 28%. There is a strange Coalition, composed of Liberal Democrats and Conservative Republicans which oppose Intervention of any Kind, leaving those who are in the „Mainstream” to carry the Weight and Responsibility for giving such Approval to the President.
The Situation in Syria
No one, including the Syrian Government disputes that they posess Chemical Weapons.
Less clear it is who used these Chemical Weapons in the latest Incident in which, according to credible Reports, approximately 1.400 People were killed, many of them, Children. Truly a horrendous Act. Some have suggested that the Rebels may have captured some of these Chemical Weapons and used them deliberately in order to entrap the Assad Government.
The United Nations Inspectors' Report will be available shortly and will become an important Factor if it corroborates the Intelligence Reports obtained by the United States establishing that the Assad Government used these Chemical Weapons against Civilians.
Even if the Rebels are aided as a Result of these contemplated Military Strikes, it is by no means a foregone Conclusion that Rebels associated with al-Qaeda or other Fundamentalist Movements would not inordinately benefit from them. Interesting is the Position taken by a Veteran French Diplomat in an Open Letter to the French Parliament:
31 août 2013
31 August 2013
No to Symbolic Strikes (and for Conscience's Sake). Yes to useful Strikes in Syria.
(Le Monde)
http://syrie.blog.lemonde.fr/2013/08/31/non-aux-frappes-symboliques-et-de-bonne-conscience-oui-aux-frappes-utiles-en-syrie/
(in French)
The Allies
Crucially important are the Allies who would be participating and/or supporting such Strikes.
So far, they are Canada, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and France. After Canada, however, Things get murky when analyzing these Allies. Saudi Arabia, which has Regional Political Considerations, that is one Thing. Turkey which has been an arch-Enemy of Syria and would like nothing more than to have Syria destroyed, is another. France; France has just announced that they will wait for the United Nations Report which seems to be an eminently sensible Thing to do.
Notably not joining in such a Coalition are Countries which normally can be counted upon: Germany, Japan, Italy and, most importantly, the United Kingdom, where Prime Minister Cameron's Motion to join in such a Coalition was voted down by Parliament, putting his Government on a rather shaky Footing.
The Damage in Syria has been done. There may be more Damage done if there are no Strikes. However, the Likelihood appears to be that there will be more Damage done even if there are such Strikes and that Prudence and Patience are the best Choices as the Order of the Day.
It is a difficult Choice. However, it does not appear that all of the necessary Variables of the Equation are available in order to make a correct Decision. It might be appropriate to list just what the available Information is, at this Point in Time. It also needs to be emphasized that the Information which is available, classified or not, is subject to re-Evaluation, literally, at a Moment's Notice as more Information becomes available.
Here is what we see so far:
The United Nations
It is clear that an International Intervention against Syria, limited or otherwise, is not possible within the Framework of the United Nations. Russia and China are against a Security Council Resolution authorizing such Action and both have Veto Power.
This makes problematic any Action outside of the Scope of the United Nations, because such Action would be taken precisely because Approval cannot be obtained in the Security Council. Simply put, one cannot easily make the Argument that the United States would go to the United Nations seeking Approval of such Action and, absent such Approval, it would act outside of the Scope of the United Nations or within another Framework or Coalition.
United States Domestic Policy Considerations
President Obama has set a courageous and correct Precedent by going to Congress to ask for Approval of a contemplated Military Strike. We discussed the Implications of the Policy in an earlier Article.
Approval in Congress may be difficult but, it may prevail. Straws in the Wind seem to indicate, however, that there might be some tough Sailing ahead. Senator McCain, an outspoken Hawk in favor of Intervention, confronted some tough Questions at a Couple of „Town Meetings” which he has just held. Polls seem to indicate that the Population as a whole is opposed to Intervention, limited as the President said it would be, by something around 48 to 28%. There is a strange Coalition, composed of Liberal Democrats and Conservative Republicans which oppose Intervention of any Kind, leaving those who are in the „Mainstream” to carry the Weight and Responsibility for giving such Approval to the President.
The Situation in Syria
No one, including the Syrian Government disputes that they posess Chemical Weapons.
Less clear it is who used these Chemical Weapons in the latest Incident in which, according to credible Reports, approximately 1.400 People were killed, many of them, Children. Truly a horrendous Act. Some have suggested that the Rebels may have captured some of these Chemical Weapons and used them deliberately in order to entrap the Assad Government.
The United Nations Inspectors' Report will be available shortly and will become an important Factor if it corroborates the Intelligence Reports obtained by the United States establishing that the Assad Government used these Chemical Weapons against Civilians.
Even if the Rebels are aided as a Result of these contemplated Military Strikes, it is by no means a foregone Conclusion that Rebels associated with al-Qaeda or other Fundamentalist Movements would not inordinately benefit from them. Interesting is the Position taken by a Veteran French Diplomat in an Open Letter to the French Parliament:
31 août 2013
Non aux frappes symboliques et de bonne conscience. Oui aux frappes utiles en Syrie.
31 August 2013
No to Symbolic Strikes (and for Conscience's Sake). Yes to useful Strikes in Syria.
(Le Monde)
http://syrie.blog.lemonde.fr/2013/08/31/non-aux-frappes-symboliques-et-de-bonne-conscience-oui-aux-frappes-utiles-en-syrie/
(in French)
The Allies
Crucially important are the Allies who would be participating and/or supporting such Strikes.
So far, they are Canada, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and France. After Canada, however, Things get murky when analyzing these Allies. Saudi Arabia, which has Regional Political Considerations, that is one Thing. Turkey which has been an arch-Enemy of Syria and would like nothing more than to have Syria destroyed, is another. France; France has just announced that they will wait for the United Nations Report which seems to be an eminently sensible Thing to do.
Notably not joining in such a Coalition are Countries which normally can be counted upon: Germany, Japan, Italy and, most importantly, the United Kingdom, where Prime Minister Cameron's Motion to join in such a Coalition was voted down by Parliament, putting his Government on a rather shaky Footing.
The Damage in Syria has been done. There may be more Damage done if there are no Strikes. However, the Likelihood appears to be that there will be more Damage done even if there are such Strikes and that Prudence and Patience are the best Choices as the Order of the Day.
