$ 60 Billion and Change (a Billion here, a Billion there)

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has expressed Outrage at the House not taking up Hurricane Sandy Relief on the last Day of the 112th Congress.  He is right, of course.  To this, it should be added that neither had the Senate and, if the Bill would have been ammended to include Hurricane Sandy by the House, that would have meant the Bill would have had to go back to the Senate for Approval, prolonging the ,,Fiscal Cliff’’ Crisis by at least another Day; the 112th Congress may or may not have had the Time, the Ability or the Inclination to finish it all off.

Be that as it may, however, the Amount of Relief sought by another Governor for the Damages arising of Hurricane Sandy, Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, was around $ 60 Billion.  Without assuming that the Figure estimated by Governor Cuomo is or is not correct, it should, nonetheless, be noted that the 112th Congress, in its waning Days, found it appropriate to legislate $ 67 Billion of Tax Credits (which is equivalent to a $ 67 Billion Treasury Shortfall, same Thing as an Expense, really...not getting the Money or spending it adds up to the same Thing under the Bottom Line) for various specifically targeted Corporate Taxpayers, including, of all Things, NASCAR.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/04/16334798-fiscal-cliff-deal-includes-at-least-679-billion-for-special-interests?lite

It is a reasonable Question to ask, whether this Prioritising has been done in an equitable Manner; also, whether Governor Christie's Anger should not be directed at the Senate as well, for not including Hurricane Sandy Relief in the Legislation in the First Place but including $ 67 Billion in ,,Pork.’’

Elsewhere in this Column, it has been suggested that other Methods should be considered to finance the Rebuilding of the Hurricane Sandy Devastation; a Sales Tax on the Buying and the Selling of Stocks, an extremely profitable Industry which benefits the New York Tri State Area immensely and which is based in the Middle of the devastated Area.

It would also be beneficial, of course, for Governor Christie, yes, Governor Cuomo as well and all the Rest of us to also urge Congress to rescind the $ 67 Billion in Tax Credits (,,Pork’’) appropriated for NASCAR and other Special Interests; after all, the Treasury needs every Penny it can get.

The Social Security Tax - why it is a Regressive Tax and what Solutions are possible

One of the Tax Increases enacted or, more correctly, reinstated by the ,,Fiscal Cliff’’ Legislation is the additional 2% Social Security Tax.  This Tax was reduced from 6,2% to 4,2% by the Bush Tax Cuts; in one of the more bizarre Offshoots of the ,,Theory of Reaganomics,’’ take in less and pay out more, don't worry, as an old Sales Manager used to say, we'll make it up in Volume.

Of course, it doesn't work that Way but, then again, Economics was not Mr. Bush's Forté.  We don't know what his Forté was, actually, but certainly Economics was not one of them.

As a Result of this Action and previous underlying Actions, the Social Security Fund is facing a Deficit (Loss) of around $ 100 Billion in 2013; nobody knows for sure, really, but this Estimate is as good as any.  Reverting to the 6,2% Rate will alleviate the Problem somewhat but nowhere nearly enough.

Everybody who gets a Wage pays this Tax (matched by an equal Amount in Employer Contributions; the Employer Contributions Rate had not been reduced so it did not have to be revised - interestingly, no ,,Job Creation’’ Argument was made for that by the Bush Administration); however, the more interesting Part is that this Tax applies only to the First $110.000,00 or so of Income that everybody earnes; after that, one is home free; no 6,2% for Employee nor Employer.  This Policy, which interestingly, is not practiced by any other major Country which has a Social Security Type System merely exacerbates one of the most regressive Taxes imaginable.  Doubling the Social Security Tax Ceiling would eliminate 40-50% of the Annual Deficit and eliminating it altogher would allow for financing of Social Security and Medicare without straining any other Part of the Federal Budget.

Raising or eliminating the Ceiling would affect only that Part of Salaries in excess of $ 110.000,00 which would allow the Tax to become less regressive (although it would still be regressive) and bring a slight Modecum of Equity to the Social Security System as well as resolving another Piece of the Federal Budget and Deficit Dilemma.

The one Caveat would be, not to let the Clintons get Wind of this (admittedly, a hard Feat to accomplish) and throw the additional Revenues into the General Fund (as they did before), claim that somehow they ingeniously balanced the Budget and then leave for someone else after them the Task of straightening out the Mess once again.

The ,,Fiscal Cliff’’ and Hurricane Sandy

Good News!  The Fiscal Cliff Legislaton is a done Thing.  Well, not altogether done but at least the minimum necessary.  For about Two Months or so while still important Things need to be done; the Federal Debt Limit and those onerous Budget Cuts.

Some complain that $ 60 Billion or so of ,,Pork Provisions’’ got attached to the Legislation by various Interest Groups as the Price to pay for getting this Legislation done.  The Complaint is obviously legitimate.

Still others, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and, to a lesser extent but just as convincingly, Governor Mario Cuomo of New York point out that the 112th Congress, which has now become History, adjourned and ended its Session without taking up Aid for the Victims and Reconstruction of Hurricane Sandy.  Interestingly, that Appropriation would have come up to about $ 60 Billion as well.

What is being missed in the Equation that the United States Government is in dire Straits and does not really have the Money either for the ,,Pork Appropriations’’ nor the Money needed for the Reconstruction of Hurricane Sandy.

On the other Hand, the News of the Fiscal Cliff Avoidance Legislation was ,,cheered’’ by Wall Street, with Big Gains on 31 December 2012, anticipating that an Agreement would be reached and some Legislation would be passed and, immediately following, on 2 January 2013, celebrating the Event.

Governor Cuomo should be thinking about and Governor Christie as well as President Obama should be suggesting to him that one look elsewhere to raise this direly needed Money from a minuscule Sales Tax levied on Stock Market Transactions of 0,1% or even 0,2%.  This would raise the Money for them very quickly, from a locally owned Institution which is controlling Trillions of Dollars and give the Federal Budget a welcome and much needed Relief.

One should be keeping in Mind that the Stock Market has been an enormous Beneficiary of Federal Largesse; propping up Corporations such as AIG and General Motors (the ,,New’’ General Motors, whatever that means) and, not the Least, the unbelievable and unheard of Policies of ,,Quantitative Easing’’ which have been pursued by the Fed under the Ægis of Mr. Bernanke.

The Federal Government needs to look for Economies wherever it is possible; even with increased Tax Rates, this comes nowhere near close to starting to make a Dent in the Federal Deficit (it actually allows it to continue to worsen), Governor Christie and all others should be looking for Revenues right in their own Back Yard.

The Address of the New York Stock Exchange is, as Mr. Christie surely knows,

No. 11 Wall Street, New York, N. Y. 10005.
Telephone:  1-212-656-3000

 

31 December 2012 - The Fiscal Cliff and Negative Energy

The Reality of the impending ,, Fiscal Cliff ’’ has reached Washington, today, New Year's Eve.  After Weeks of Predictions by various Pundits both inside and outside of the Government that a ,, Last Minute Deal ’’ would be reached, now, it appears that, at best, some Sort of ,, Last Minute Patchwork ’’ is the best one can hope for.

Former Senator Alan Simpson was ridiculed by both Democrats and Republicans for uploading a Video on YouTube in which he ,, danced ’’ well, sort of, along a Can of Soda (or, maybe was it a Beer Can?), symbolically pointing out to what is likely to happen, which is, kicking the Can forward.

There are numerous Factors which have contributed to reaching this sad Situation and this Column would like to attempt to refresh our Recollections as to how we may have gotten to where we are and why it seems that both Congress and The President appear so powerless in finding a Solution, a real Solution, not a Patchwork.

To this, we also wish to add the Following Observation.  One of the Attributes which is necessary for the Political Leadership and, yes, the Political Infantrymen as well, to find Solutions to or in difficult Situations is Enthusiasm, Élan and just a pure Desire to get Things (or at least something) accomplished.  This Attribute, this Force is lacking, lacking so glaringly that one cannot but feel the
,, Negative Energy ’’ which surrounds those who must struggle and find a Solution.

But what are the Factors which got the Federal Government into this horrid Situation and who was responsible for getting us there?  The List is long.  Below, we can only attempt to enumerate some of the Factors, likely important ones but certainly not all of the important ones along with Reasons why addressing these Problems is ultimately necessary in order to address the ,, Fiscal Cliff ’’ as well as the surrounding Decisions which need to be made (increasing the Federal Debt Ceiling).

§  Afghanistan - Defense Expenditures.  It is generally accepted by a good Number of People now that the War in Afghanistan has been a Financial Disaster.  Expenditures in Afghanistan as well as Iraq and Pakistan need to be addressed as President Reagan would have put it, with a
,, Red Pencil.’’ 

§  Income Tax Rates.  It is Time not only for the Republicans but for everyone else to recognize that the Principle of
,, Reaganomics ’’  which theorized that the Government can eventually raise more Revenue by lowering Taxes (and stimulating the Economy) is, basically, what President G. Herbert Walker Bush called ,,Voodoo Economics.’’  Moreover, specifically as to Corporate Income Tax Rates, while it is true that some Industrialized Countries have lower Corporate Income Tax Rates than the United States, none has the Array of Tax Deductions and Loopholes, some, custom written by Congress which are available to many large Corporations in the United States.  Returning to the pre-Bush (G. W. Bush) Era Tax Cuts for People earning in Excess of $ 250.000,00 is really not only a modest but also a sensible Solution and no credible Argument has been put forward that such a Move would result in the Loss of Jobs or Job Creation.

§  Restore Social Security, Medicare and related Social Costs to the pre Clinton Status Quo of ,,Trust Funds.’’  This will prevent future Presidents from claiming that they have ,,balanced the Budget’’ by shifting Funds around and raiding Funds which show large Surpluses (or even small Surpluses).

§  Remove the Social Security Tax Cap which currently stands at $110.000,00.  Think about this for a Minute.  More important than the Rate paid by Employees (currently lower than the Rate paid by the Employers, somebody forgot the ,,creating Jobs’’ Argument on that one by not reducing the Employers’ Contribution Rate) is that all the huge Earnings by Corporate Executives and Wall Street Bonus Recepients are exempt from Social Security Taxes; once they've paid the $ 110,000.00, the are home free.

§  Put Pressure on the Federal Reserve in general and Mr. Bernanke in particular to abandon ill advised Theories of ,,Quantitatve Easing’’ and what not by pouring Billions of Dollars into the Stock Market.  This is simply irresponsible.  The Stock Market is jittery at the Prospect of the Fiscal Cliff simply because it loves ,, Easy Money.’’  Even though the Stock Market has propelled to new Heights since the Start of the Fiscal Crisis (generously not referred to as a Depression but as a Deep Recession), this has had very little Impact, if any, on the Economy.

§  Abstain from huge Expenditures into Support Ventures
(,, Bailouts ’’) of large and even not so large Corporations such as AIG, General Motors, Solindra and others.    Although AIG has technically repaid all of the Government Loans this does not  account for Billions of Tax Breaks which AIG has received from the Government.  Besides, much of AIG has now been sold to China.  The General Motors Bailout is costing the Government Billions in Net Losses.  Somebody said, ,,Give me $ 60 Billion and I can show you how I can make a Profit.’’  It would be good to consider, at least, the Opinion of some Experts who contend that it will not be possible for General Motors to succeed as a viable Entity.

There are other Issues and Areas to be addressed but we wanted to list just a few.

Additionally, however, another Warning regarding a great Disservice which the Federal Reserve and Mr. Bernanke are doing to the Budget.  The Fed is keeping Interest Rates low, almost at Zero, to be exact.  This helps Banks and Financial Institutions which are entitled to borrow directly from the Fed and then reap huge Profits in large, complex and sometimes questionable Financial Transactions.  This does not help the Consumer, or even most Business Owners, who must pay a Bank or a Financial Institution nearly Ten Times, or more, in Interest, than what the Financial Institution needs to pay to acquire the Funds.

But there is a hidden Danger.  The Fed cannot keep Interest Rates at such low Rates at Infinitum.  Some Day, after Mr. Bernanke leaves (and he wants to leave soon), Interest Rates will have to, at best, inch or creep upwards and when that happens, the Cost of borrowing Money for the Federal Government will rocket astronomically.  The Rate on Federal Borrowing may one Day be dictated by Markets and The Fed may not be in a Position to dictate what it will be.  This has happened elsewhere, as we all know, only too well.  In such an Event, the Impact of Debt Service, not to mention the Cost of new Borrowing on the Federal Government will be not a pleasant Thing, as it is today for Mr. Bernanke to play around with announcing what the Interest Rates will be and throwing Money around into the Financial Markets while he invents new Names, such as ,, Quantitative Easing’’ for Things which aren't really that new at all.

Fiscal Cliff

Recent Reports suggest that soon, a Family of Four will be paying $ 25.000,00 for Health Insurance annually and that, with less Coverage and higher Deductibles.

While the Affordable Care Act (so called Obamacare) is a Step in the Right Direction, it is, some suggest, not nearly enough to bring under Control Medical Costs.

Various Statistics reveal the following:

§ Medical Costs in the United States are the highest in the World.  The Second Runner Up is at less than half.

§ Doctors in the United States earn the highest Incomes of any Doctors anywhere, so much so that Doctors from less affluent Countries who have a Medical Education in English (it is considerably more difficult to pass the Boards with a non English Medical Education) are clamoring to get a Foothold in the United States and practice, yes, practice Medicine, of course.

§ Despite all this, Life Expectancy in the United States is just about Neck in Neck with Life Expectancy in, of all Places, some place like Cuba.  There are a Multitude of Reasons for this, of course, including Dietary Factors but, still, one would expect more, given the Costs of Health Insurance and Health Care.

§ A Common Medical Procedure, known as an MRI costs, on Average, according to some Statistics, $ 2.500,00 in the United States.  It can be performed at some Outpatient Clinics for as low as $ 600,00 and one Reporter recently found a Hospital in Boston which charges in Excess of $ 7.000,00 for this exact same Procedure.  Health Insurance Companies have Contracts under which they pay less (why should people who pay for Medical Care out of their own Pocket have to pay more is a Question which deserves being raised and be examined on its own Merits).  The more interesting Thing, though, is that the same exact Procedure, an MRI costs approximately $ 160,00 in Germany, France and Italy.  In Japan, a Country not exactly known for low Costs, it costs $ 60,00.  They all use the same exact Equipment, manufactured by either Siemens or GE and, at least two of the four Countries above, Germany and Japan, are not exactly known for low Wages.

What is going to be compromised between Mr. Obama and Mr. Boehner with regard to the ,,Fiscal Cliff,'' whatever that means, is yet to be revealed and it is probably not known by either of them at this Moment.

However, one Item which has come up is the new Medicare Taxes which will be going into Effect 1 January 2013, as a Result of Legislation passed by Congress and signed by Mr. Obama.  This Legislation provides, no, it does not provide for new Taxes, it establishes the Provision that Medicare Taxes should continue on Wages in Excess of $200.000,00 (for Single Taxpayers) and $ 250.000,00 (for Married Taxpayers).

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/11/15846903-democrats-seek-delay-in-one-obamacare-tax-increase?lite

Suddenly, this Provision has now come under Scrutiny and may be sacrificed as part of the Negotiations to avoid the so called ,,Fiscal Cliff.''  We do not understand this Point.

The Congress and the President of the United States can decide what the Obligations (including the financial Obligations) of the Federal Government will be on a Year to Year Basis.  Some of these Obligations are inescapable, they are either dictated by Law or by Contracts (such as Debt Interest, for Example).  How are Wage Earners who make more than $ 200.000,00 or $ 250.000,00 ,,hurting'' the Economy by paying 1,45% of their Wages for Medicare Tax on Income above that Amount?

Paranthetically, another Tax which is equally regressive is the Social Security Tax, currently at 4,2% for Employees, but only on the First $110.000,00 of their Wages.  Translated, that means, of course, that People who get huge Salaries, sometimes $ 500.000,00, sometimes $ 5.000.000,00 or even more, simply pay that $ 4.000,00 or so in Social Security Tax and then are 4,2% ahead for every Dollar they earn from $110.000,00 forward.

One Thing is apparent.  With this Kind of Manœvering, if it comes into Play, very little is going to get accomplished.  And the Can will be kicked forward.

Correction: $ 4 Billion, not $ 1 Billion

In our last Writing, we reported that Cost of the Presidential Election (counting Money spent by both Parties), exceeded $ 1 Billion, an Amount most People would simply find as staggering.  However, as more Figures keep pouring they are suggesting that the Amount spent most certainly was closer to $ 2 Billion.  Some Estimates put the Amount spent (including the Money spent by Political Action Committees, which are not directly tied to the Campaigns) to $ 4 Billion.

Still other Reports suggest that, on the Average, approximately $ 20,00 was spent for each Vote Cast.

Some of us may remember Senator Everett McKinley Dirksen, who hailed from a Town with the improbable Name of Pekin, Illinois and who was also a Playwright (notably, ,,Chinese Love'') who said, ,,A Billion Dollars here, a Billion Dollars there, pretty soon you are talking abour real Money!''

These Kinds of Sums of Money, wantonly spent, some might say, by both Candidates and those who supported them, sometimes call into Question the Resolution and Determination which will be required by the winning Candidate, Mr. Obama, to deal with the Challenges ahead.

The immediate Issue facing the Nation at this Time (and we are not dismissing further ones down the Horizon) is the so called ,,Fiscal Cliff'' which must be dealt, rather than ,,kicking the Can forward'' which is what most likely will happen.

Mr. Romney, despite his Rhetoric, did not really have a Plan for dealing with the financial Challenges which face this Country.  However, Mr. Obama does not have one either.  And, neither does the Republican House of Representatives which is determined to fight him Tooth and Nail on allowing the 10% Cut for High Income Tax  Brackets to expire.

In recent Years, ,,Borrow from China'' has been the Solution.  In a very real Sense, China has even financed the ill fated and poorly thought out Wars that Mr. Bush initiated in Afghanistan and Iraq and which, although being wound down, still represent an enormous Drain on the Economy.  When it comes to certain Things, Costs are not really so easy to cut, even when the Project is brought to an End (Take, for Example, in Iraq, an Embassy employing 15.000 People, the largest Embassy in the World for any Country).

But the Strategy ,,Borrow from China'' may be fraught with Peril.  The Chinese have been willing to lend and they may still be willing to lend, even at ,,Basement'' Interest Rates.  However, it may well be that the Chinese may soon come to the Point where they cannot lend anymore in order to feed such a voracious Apetite for Deficits, simply because, they won't have any more Money to lend, no matter which Way they ,,manipulate'' their Currency.