Corona...the Vaccine

One of the leading matters being discussed right now regarding the Corona Virus is the emergence of a Vaccine.  President Trump is predicting that a Vaccine should be available by the end of October or the beginning of November.  Dr. Fauci is also optimistic and he predicts that a Corona Virus Vaccine which will be, to use his exact words, ,,Safe and Effective'' would be available by the beginning of the year (2021).

The question which neither one of them, or anyone else is addressing is, what constitutes the definition of ,,Safe and Effective,'' to use, again, Dr. Fauci's words.

We were taught and generally it is accepted, that such words need to be quantified in some way or another.

For example, ,,Safe.'' how safe?  100% safe?  90% safe?  80% safe?  50% safe?  How does Dr. Fauci exactly describe safe, or, more precisely, how does he quantify it?  Many Vaccines are safe, but some are more safe than others.  Some Vaccines are considered by certain people, including medical professionals not to be safe.  Indeed, not very long ago, not very long ago at all, there was a raging debate in some States whether vaccination of children for certain types of flu can be compulsory.  Many parents were (and still are) opposed to having their children vaccinated against the flu.  Many adults are.  Many people intentionally avoid being vaccinated against the flu and/or other types of communicable diseases.  We are entitled to know from Dr. Fauci, not just Dr. Fauci, but anyone and everyone else who is involved in the development of these Vaccines as to how safe the Corona Vaccine would be, not in general, vague terms, but specifically, using numbers, using percentages.

Let's set aside safety aside for a moment.  How about effectiveness?  Dr. Fauci says that the Corona Virus will be ,,Effective.''  Again, the word ,,Effective'' is a vague concept.  How effective?  100% effective?  80% effective?  50% effective?  40% effective?  Again, nobody appears to want to come forward and answer these questions.  Are these questions important?  We would like each to consider the answer to that question for oneself, but here are the facts we know.  No Vaccine is 100% effective.  That fact is disputed by no one.  Some Vaccines, not many, not many at all, can be as high as 80% or 90% effective.  Such Vaccines are considered exceptionally good.  Many Vaccines are far less effective, some, as low as 40% or 30%.  Dr. Fauci himself stated that a Corona Virus Vaccine might be 50% effective.  That doesn't sound like a very impressive number, but even at 50%, it raises more questions than it answers.

Again, we would like to go to CDC numbers to which we had alluded earlier and which were published through 17 June 2020.  As we stated earlier, 80% of Corona Virus fatalities have been 65 years old or older through that period.  90% of Corona Virus fatalities were 55 years old or older.  Corona Virus fatalities for infants and children were statistically insignificant.

More importantly, the CDC figures further show that 94% of the Corona Virus fatalities succumbed with co-morbidities.  That, we find an awful statistic.  In analyzing that statistic, it further shows that at least through 17 June 2020, the total number of people who died in the United States of the Corona Virus under the age of 55 and who had no co-morbidities was less than 200.

So, to us, a logical question would be, what is the effectiveness of the Corona Virus Vaccine for people who are over 65, and/or over 55, or at any age, for that matter, who are suffering from another disease which would result in a co-morbidity, in the event that person contacts or is infected with the Corona Virus.  Dr. Fauci does not answer that question.  Nobody is answering that question.  And that would be a very, very, very important question, as the total number of deaths caused by the Corona Virus (and co-morbidities), is now approaching 200,000 in the United States alone.

All this is going on, without any serious concern, so far as we can discern, how much sanitary conditions in Rest Homes and Hospitals might have something to do with Corona Virus fatalities.

Also, given the severity of this epidemic, there is very little effort in the United States, one could almost say, token effort, towards ,,Therapeutics,'' in plain English, drugs, towards treating those who become infected with this horrendous disease, especially when it comes to elderly people and, more specifically, elderly people who are suffering from another threatening condition.

We have mentioned several of these ,,Therapeutics,'' a less fancy word for that would be drugs, which have been dismissed one after another, or, as is the case with Remdesivir, really, not given the importance that it would seem to deserve, given the dire situation concerning fatalities.  Equally, there has been no enthusiasm on embarking on progress made in other countries, through various methods, Favipiravir in Japan, now being used in numerous other countries, and containing methods such as Herd Immunity.  We may not know how effective those things may be, although we suspect that there is a great deal of information already out there, but to hang on to meaningless catchphrases, such as ,,Gold Standard'' in order to avoid scientific evaluation of everything and anything, seems to border on a certain level of irresponsibility.  Rome is burning, in this case, literally, some American cities are in flames and Dr. Fauci seems to be obsessed with rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

With all of the consequences that the United States and the world have endured over the recent period of a little more than six months, economic, societal and quality of life consequences, we believe, it is not too much to ask, to expect better than that.

The Corona Virus. Scientists and Virologists

We recently wrote a few comments and expressed some opinions regarding Dr. Fauci.  Lately, Dr. Fauci has been gasping for oxygen in the room, as nobody is paying much attention to what he has been saying.  Once again, the Corona Virus epidemic is real, there have been many other real epidemics.  One of the things, we would argue, the major thing that makes the Corona Virus different, are the consequences which it has caused, starting with the now famous or infamous ,,Shutdown'' in the United States and numerous other countries as well.  Despite several ,,easings'' in various forms in different States and various countries around the world, the ,,Shutdsown'' remains real.  There are various consequences which can be directly and indirectly attributed to this ,,Shutdown.''  Unemployment, economic collapse or disruption, unrest, rioting and worse in the streets, not only in the United States but in other countries as well.  In the meantime, there is talk about ,,The New Normal'' whatever that is supposed to mean.

A little over six months ago, we had no idea who Dr. Fauci was.  Nor did we care.  We doubt that very many other people knew of him and that he would catapult to the pinnacle and be able such enormous and nearly absolute power in such a short time.

To be clear, Dr. Fauci did not start this.  The entire panic was started in great part by the now (in)famous Dr. Ferguson, in England, who predicted an apocalypse.  Dr. Ferguson was one of the first to brandish a new, or perhaps not so new style of elitism, where he promulgated rules regarding social distancing, masks and, of course, the infamous ,,Shutdown,'' while at the same time, flagrantly flaunting such rules.  He wore no mask in public, he had sexual relations for several days with his mistress, who is a married woman with children.  Dr. Ferguson was fired from his job, but it was too late.  The damage had already been done and Dr. Fauci picked up the ball from there and valiantly, some would say mercilessly carried it forward.

One of the things we heard from Dr. Fauci and hear continuously from others, is this business regarding listening to the ,,Scientists.''  However, anyone should know, ,,Scientists'' are not a monolithic group.  And then, it comes down to which Science.  And it further comes down to which Science over which Science.  Things are not so clear cut as Dr. Fauci and many others would have us believe.

One can look at statistics for guidance.  Of course, statistics themselves can be manipulated and they often are, but let us look for a moment at the American Government statistics.  These are for Corona Virus fatalities through 16 June 2020.  More recent figures should be and most likely are available; we do not think they would be that much different either for the United States or for other countries, for that matter.

Corona Virus Deaths

Classified by age, 80% of the Corona Virus fatalities have been people over the age of 65.  90% of the Corona Virus fatalities have been over the age of 55.  For infants or children, the numbers are extremely low, statistically almost insignificant.

Of course, every death matters, be it one of an elderly person and this writer is elderly himself, or that of a child or infant.  But one can at least keep in mind that most elderly people do not work, they do not teach schools and have less contact with the population than those who are engaged in daily active life.

But to put this into perspective, restricting social and economic interaction between people who are very unlikely to contact the Corona Virus and, if they are, would incur only minor symptoms...that should have been and still should be, and is, a matter which one should take into consideration.  ,,Touchless'' and ,,Contactless'' interactions seems to be practices which one should call into question.

But it gets worse.

Of all of the Corona Virus fatalities, 94% suffered from co-morbidities, meaning, theses people died due to a usually chronic and morbid disease which they had to begin with and the Corona Virus accelerated and, let us say, ,,sealed'' their fate.

Here, we must say, that drugs which are already available and which perhaps do not meet the ,,Gold Standard'' which Dr. Fauci desires, but maybe they meet the ,,Silver Standard'' or the ,,Bronze Standard'' have been frowned upon by individuals like Dr. Fauci and doctors (who, unlike Dr. Fauci, use a stethoscope every day) have often been reluctant to use them regularly, let alone aggressively.  We have mentioned some of these drugs in the previous post and they are well known and widely available; well, not all, those used in Japan nobody in the United States, at least, wants to even hear about.

But to postulate, as Dr. Fauci and others do, that a vaccine which is likely to be 50% effective, maybe even less effective, is going to make much, if any difference, in a disease in which 94% of the inflicted died from co-morbidities, that is a bit far fetched and we wonder, how ,,scientific.''

One can make a further calculation.  Currently, less than 200.000 people (and that is a lot, we know) out of population of more than 300 million succumbed to the Corona Virus.  That is something around 0,7% which may or may not be a lot.  But out of that 0,7%, 94% died because they had co-morbidities...that is something that we do not hear Dr. Fauci or anyone else talk about.

At the same time, regrettably, very, very regrettably, no one is talking anymore about how many people succumb daily from circulatory diseases, cancer and who knows how many other horrible diseases each and every day, month and year.

There is an anecdote, a proverb which one used to hear around Law School, intended to disparage bad lawyers and which went something like, ,,Before we start anything, let's shoot all the lawyers.''

Maybe one should consider the proposition, before really we do anything further in order to bring under control this Corona Virus, let's ,,lock down'' all the Virologists.

That Adorable Dr. Fauci

The Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.  Dr. Anthony Fauci.  A little over six months ago nobody had heard of him, at least not too many people, we don't think.  Yet, almost overnight, Dr. Fauci has become not only a celebrity but a very powerful individual.  Although his power is somewhat on the vane lately, nonetheless, he commands tremendous authority.  He offers statements on most things that have something to do with the Corona Virus and also various things which, either directly or indirectly, are not related that much with the Corona Virus.

We thought it might be informative, and perhaps useful, to take a look at some of the things Dr. Fauci says, writes or thinks.

Historically, over the last six months or so, Dr. Fauci has expressed various, sometimes derogatory and sometimes contradictory opinions about numerous ways in which the Medical Community and others, have thought to seek solutions to treat or cure the Corona Virus epidemic.

To name a few, Hydroxychloroquine, no, it does not meet the Gold Standard.  Remdesivir, which has in the meantime proven to have several benefits in treating this disease, no, and then, when the drug was proven to work, silence.  Plasma, no.  The Japanese drugs which have been proven effective in treating the Corona Virus, Faviripiravir and Avigan, we think they are called..no mention, he doesn't even want to hear about them.

There are many indications that some if not all of the above drugs, and others, are at least partially effective, perhaps a lot more effective than Dr. Fauci cares to admit.  But when pressed about this argument, Dr. Fauci brings in his argument about the ,,Gold Standard'' which he says should be used in Clinical Trials and he, only he, decides when this ,,Gold Standard'' has been met.

Dr. Fauci also states that the Corona Virus is a serious problem.  We agree.  We wonder then, when a problem is as serious as he says it is, and it is, then, rather than doing nothing, why would not a ,,Silver Standard'' or even a ,,Bronze Standard'' be worth giving a try.  We also wonder why some of these drugs, notably Hydroxychloroquine, which has been around in Germany and elsewhere, under one form or another since 1933 and is considered to be an extremely safe drug to administer, suddenly is being called into question for numerous safety issues which nobody noticed for almost 90 years.

And if there is a ,,Gold Standard,'' a drug without side effects and without contraindications, we would like to know about it.  Not only for prescription only drugs but also over the counter drugs, such as Aspirin, which are contraindicated for some and can have side effects on others.

In the meantime, Dr. Fauci strongly urges the wearing of masks and lately, aviator goggles as well, as well as ,,Social Distancing'' a term which, we don't think existed before 2020.  These things may be effective.  Then again, they may be less effective than Dr. Fauci will have us believe.  But the question must be asked, why Dr. Fauci does not insist on his ,,Gold Standard'' for evaluating just how effective each one of these things are.

One must also question, how valid are some of these edicts proclaimed by Dr. Fauci.  They seem to resemble more the motto ,,Do as I say, not as I do,'' as he is often seen not wearing a mask, he contradicts himself on whether one should wear a mask or not wear a mask, he does not seem to be much into ,,Social Distancing'' and he certainly does not wear aviator goggles.  Dr. Fauci's counterparts and colleagues, notably Dr. Ferguson in England have been guilty of even worse.  Dr. Ferguson spent overnight time for several days with his mistress, a married woman with children, even though he had tested positive for the Corona Virus.  That would appear to be not only negligent, at best, but the pinnacle of irresponsibility, an act for which, mercifully, he was fired.

Dr. Fauci speaks about other things, too, personal sanitary habits which have been recognized since time immemorial.  But not too forcefully.  There seems to be evidence that personal sanitary habits can go a long way to arrest the spread not only of the Corona Virus but many other communicable diseases, but, that's not where his mind is at.

Dr. Fauci's mind is on a Vaccine.  That's the cure all, he wants us to believe.  Yet, looking at the history of Vaccines in general, while they are very useful and should be employed in all situations where possible, including the Corona Virus, no Vaccine is 100% effective.  Vaccines which are 80-90% effective are considered spectacular.  Elsewhere, earlier, we mentioned that a Corona Virus Vaccine, developed with such speed, might be 40% effective.  Recently, Dr. Fauci himself came out and said, he would consider it a success if a Corona Virus Vaccine would be 50% effective.  He did not explain how he would eradicate the Corona Virus with a Vaccine which is only 50% effective.

There are Doctors and Medical Professionals who have introduced the concept of Herd Immunity.  Italy was one of the hardest hit countries by the Corona Virus.  One must admit, if even grudgingly, that the Italian people, the Italian Medical Professionals and, above all, the Italian Doctors fought valiantly, against enormous odds and with extremely limited assets.  They used many of the drugs and treatments which Dr. Fauci expressed skepticism about.  They also carefully followed the concept of Herd Immunity.  Result?  There were 3 Corona Virus fatalities in Italy yesterday.  But Dr. Fauci wants to hear none of that.

One thing which should be mentioned, although it does not bear directly on the Corona Virus epidemic, or perhaps precisely because of that, is that people in Italy live longer than any other country in the world, except Japan.  And that may be due to a number of reasons.  But they also must and have darn good Doctors, not just Professor this and that at University that and the other, but everyday Doctors, who treat patients day in and day out in ordinary settings, in big cities, towns and villages.

Some people have been angered, very angered, by the New York State's actions of sending Corona Virus infected patients back into nursing homes, while, at least in New York City, two provisional hospitals provided by the Federal Government laid empty.  We did not hear Dr. Fauci calling into question that policy either.  Neither, whether by Dr. Fauci or anyone else, the idea of going in and disinfecting the entire New York City area of rats, including, probably, many hospitals, and washing down the streets regularly, twice daily, not only in New York City but elsewhere, too, as, incidentally, many Italian (and other) cities do.

So, where does all that take us?  It takes us to the national ,,Lockdown'' which in one form or another, is still in effect today.  And an argument can be made, or at least should be looked into, as to whether there is any causal relationship between this ,,Lockdown'' and the immense upheaval taking place in some American cities, by people, mostly young, black and white, men and women, even boys and girls; people who have lost their jobs, people who have been shut out of school, people where family life has been disrupted and upheaved.

If one looks at the history of the 20th Century, certainly one of the bloodier Centuries in the annals of history, not even Adolf Hitler, not even Joseph Stalin, leaders known for being capable of unspeakable cruelty, locked down their own population...which is to say, put their entire population under house arrest.  It is true, 2000 years ago, Emperor Nero, who has earned his rightful place in the annals of infamy, set fire to Rome, but even Nero, did not ,,lockdown'' the people of Rome into their own houses, before he threw torches on their houses' roofs to set them on fire.

Some people believe, the economic (and also psychological) effects of this ,,Lockdown''' are catastrophic.  People are without work.  Businesses are shut down along America's streets and elsewhere.  Hotels, airlines and restaurants have practically ceased to exist almost overnight.  And, of course there is a domino effect to this which we are seeing develop before our own very eyes.  Some have observed that the fall of Rome (caused by other factors) was followed by 1000 years of darkness. 

How President Trump as well as various other leaders of other countries were persuaded to follow such ideas as promulgated by Dr. Fauci and, not only by Dr. Fauci but many others, that is for future historians to figure out.

It appears very much, Dr. Fauci, a Doctor who has probably never treated a patient in his life for Corona Virus or for anything else, a Doctor who stated he does not know what therapy he would recommend if a member of his family became infected with the Corona Virus, has just been guessing at things.  Statistically, it should have been pointed to Dr. Fauci, who describes himself as a scientist, that someone guessing at things has a 50% chance of being right.  About the same as his Vaccine.  That may not be, that is not a very wise way to conduct public policy.

Lord Acton wrote, ,,Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.''  Dr. Fauci and others like him, were given, overnight, immense power.  The results of this, we are now condemned to endure.

An Unanswered Question regarding the Flynn Affair

A certain question has troubled this writer regarding the Flynn Affair.  To begin with, we would like to set aside the merits or demerits of the case, both sides.

The question has to do with listening in to the calls into or out of the Russian Embassy and, in particular, Sergey Kislyak's line.

This brings us to the telephone calls between Mr. Flynn and Mr. Kislyak.  This would have been accomplished in either of two ways, either tapping into the calls at the Russian Embassy or tapping into Mr. Flynn's telephone line.

Tapping the phone of the Russian Embassy.  One has to think about this.  It may well be possible and likely probable that the U. S. Intelligence Services have the capability to tap into the Russian Embassy phones, particularly Mr. Kislyak's line.  However, it is reasonable to assume that such a procedure would never be admitted to, because of huge possible repercursions.  A good number of years ago it was found that the Soviets (the Russians at that time) had installed microphones in the American Embassy in Moscow and they were probably listening to, well, to everything.  There was hell to pay by the Soviets at that time.  So, admitting that the FBI was listening in to the calls by tapping into the Russian Embassy appears to be out of the question, even if it is possible and even if it is true.

So then, that brings us to the second part of the dilemma.  Was the FBI listening to Mr. Flynn's telephone calls.  Because if it was, without some kind of FISA or some other warrant, the question is, on what basis or justification.  Of any American Citizen, of course, but even more so of the designated National Security Advisor to the incoming President.  Knowing precisely the answer to this question, and, in particular, who had authorized such a procedure, whether Mr. Comey, or higher (or lower), would seem to allow much light to be thrown on the Flynn Affair, especially now, where it has taken such a tortous course.

Dr. Anthony Fauci - or is it Hypocrisy?

We are wondering about the following today.  Why is total lockdown appropriate for everybody, or nearly everybody anyways, those of us who do not have special positions or titles, and only ,,Semi-Quarantine.'' whatever that means, for Dr. Anthony Fauci?

Actually, we are wondering, why does Dr. Anthony Fauci have to go into ,,Quarantine'' at all?

According to precedent, and precedent is important everywhere, including politics, not just in a Court of Law, should not Dr. Fauci follow the precedent sent by his illustrious colleague, Dr. Neil Ferguson, Imperial College Virologist in the U. K.?  Although Neil Ferguson was infected with the Corona Virus, he didn't see the need to follow any ,,Quarantine'' at all!!!  No mask, he got together with his mistress (not girlfriend, mistress...there is a difference) who is a married woman with children.  On you go Dr. Ferguson!  And on you go, Dr. Fauci, with your uniquely coined phrase of ,,semi- isolation!!!''