The Fundamentals of Voodoo Economics

The Financial Crisis continues to play out in Wisconsin and other Mid-Western States. The Standoff between Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the Teacher's Union continues with no End in Sight. In Ohio, Governor John Kasich is also preparing for Battle with the Public Sector Unions. Iowa and other States appear to be ready to follow suit in not too long a Time. In New Jersey, Governor Chris Christie has already implemented major Financial Changes and Reforms and now has his Hands full denying that he would consider a Presidential Bid. Governor Christie has not yet invoked the Statement made by General William Tecumseh Sherman well over a Century Ago, 'I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected,' but we shall see.

It must also be said that with non Higher Education Student Performance Levels in a Dismal State throughout the Nation (see, 'Universities' elsewhere in this Forum) Teacher Salaries and Benefits should come under Scrutiny. Many Surveys indicate that Public Sector Workers are not only paid better but also have infinitely better Job Security when compared to Private Sector Workers. This Fact corrupts the Standing of Public Sector Workers as 'Civil Servants,' i. e., performing out of Dedication rather than Financial Benefits and Gain.

However, the Argument that balancing State Budgets can be done simply by this, without imposing an additional Tax Burden on Higher Income Brackets or, indeed, as done by Governor Walker, cutting Higher Income Taxes, qualifies for what Two Decades earlier President George Herbert W. Bush described as 'Vodoo Economics.'

At the Federal Level, we see a Course not all that different. 'Tea Party-ers' and many Republicans in the House are clamoring for various Cuts, much of it directed at Federal 'Entitlement' Programs and, some, attempting to reduce waste. However, all this cutting, if combined with continued uncontrolled Expenditures in Afghanistan and Iraq is totally useless. The Federal Budget consists of 3 Major Line Items: Social Programs, Military Expenditures and Interest on the Federal Debt, which add up to about 90% of what the Federal Government spends. So, even if everything else were to be eliminated completely, which, realistically it cannot, that would only add up to 10%.

In this Context, the Republican Argument that the Federal Budget can be brought under control, with these enormous Burdens, while reducing Higher Income Personal Tax Levels is, again, nothing less than what President Bush described as 'Voodoo Economics.'

Where the Republican Counter Argument that cutting Higher Income Tax Brackets 'creates Jobs' has germinated from is, to this Writer, a Mystery. There is no Evidence to show that the Billions doled out to Banks and Financial Institutions, or the 'Quantitative Easing' Cash have created any significant Number of Jobs, actually, rather, the Contrary Argument seems to be more persuasive, that they have not. To use a Cliché, the Obscene Bonuses on Wall Street have not created any Jobs.

The Challenges to balancing the Federal Budget (and, by Implication, States need to follow a similar Course in their Affairs) are:

If the War in Afghanistan (or in Iraq, or anywhere else) is necessary, fund first, fight later. Do not do what President George W. Bush did, fight first and let somebody else worry about the Funding by kicking the Can forward.

If the Social Programs have merit, fund and do not divert Funds to other Expenditures, as it was done previously with Social Security.

To cover the Federal Debt Interest Payments, one of the largest Items in the Federal Budget, obtain Funding, not by increasing the Debt Ceiling and cutting Taxes which are Voodoo Economics at its most sublime, but by assuring a Progressive Level of Taxation which covers them and, at the same Time, pray and pray hard, that somehow Mr. Bernancke will be succesful in keeping the Interest Rates low because, if he fails doing that, the Interest Payment Portion of the Federal Budget would explode.

And the Fundamentals of Voodoo Economics would not apply, should that happen.

From 'Quantitative Easing' to Wisconsin

As the Teachers' Protests continue in Wisconsin, the Tea Partiers march into Madison. So far, Governor Scott Walker has dug in his Heels and Democratic Legislators in Wisconsin have taken 'Refuge' out of State; thus, by depriving the State Legislature of a Quorum, they have, in Effect, dug in their Heels too, Toe to Toe with the Governor. Some Observers have gone so far as to proclaim Madison the Epicentre of the Financial Crises sweeping, some say, as many as 45 out of 50 States.

The Issues, however, may be too systemic to merit a simple Explanation. On the Side of the Governor, is not only the Argument that the Wisconsin State Budget needs to be balanced but that generous Teacher (and other Public Sector) Salaries and Benefits, not only in Wisconsin but elsewhere as well, have corrupted the Meaning of the Phrase 'Public Servants' so much more so when taking into Account inadequate Public Education Test Scores (see Justice Souter's Comments elsewhere in this Forum). This, at a Time when those who earn their Living in the Private Sector are having to make do on comparatively less, or much less or nothing at all.

In this Case, however, it may be helpful to take a Look at New York City, the Financial Epicentre of the United States and the World, where the Problem may be into somewhat clearer Focus.

5000 Teachers in New York City are not only in Danger of losing their generous Salaries and Benefits but their Jobs altogether. New York City is just flat out of Money and its Revenue Outlook is bleak. The Inequity comes more sharply into Focus there, when paragonating the Situation against the obscene Bonus Earnings continuing to be paid to various Echelons on Wall Street. Some may still remember the huge Bonuses that were paid on Wall Street at a Time when several Institutions on Wall Street which paid those very same Bonuses were 'Bailed Out' by the Federal Government. All but forgotten has been the Proposal to institute a 90% Federal Income Tax on those Bonuses paid by Institutions which had received (whether paid back or not) Federal Bailout Money.

Such horrific budgetary Straits at the State and City Level in New York, Wisconsin and elsewhere, not to mention the Federal Deficit Dilemma which has yet to be dealt with, continue against a Backdrop of a Policy of 'Quantitative Easing' being pursued by the Federal Reserve Bank through its most ardent Proponent, Mr. Bernancke.

Just where precisely all this Money is flowing remains a Mystery. However, with Teachers demonstrating in the Capitol Building in Madison, the Tea Partiers marching on them, 5,000 Teachers in New York about to march to the Unemployment Office while Stock Market Averages are catapulting to New Highs, that Question seems to merit being looked into and soon.

Lady Ga Ga...Wait, wait my Dear Lady...

Now that Lady Ga Ga has proclaimed herself to be the Best Singer we can all take a Sigh of Relief. The Long Standing Question has definitively been answered. The Deck can be cleared of Madonna, Michael Jackson, The Beatles, Elvis Presley, Frank Sinatra, Louis Armstrong, to mention just a Few. Actually, this Writer had thought that the 'Artistic Concept' of Dynamic Boobies had been brought into Vogue by Madonna and that the Original Concept, complete with Whirling Tassels had perhaps belonged to someone named 'Blaze Starr' of Burlesque Theatre Fame.

But, or course, all this was a long, long Time ago. On the other hand, it must be said, the Name 'Ga Ga' has an original Scent of an-Alphabetismus to it; or perhaps, one could even move the Hyphen from the First to the Second Syllable and thus let the Phabetismus bring almost everything else into Synch.

Unless...one happens to run across something from over a Century and a Half Ago, where two Voices can be heard singing over and over again, 'Ga-Ga, Ga-Ga,' or something very close to it.

Oh, my Dear...or are they saying, 'Oh my Dear Lady' before 'Ga-Ga, Ga-Ga?'

Uncharted Waters

One Week after Mubarak's Departure from Cairo to the Sea Side Resort of Sharm el Sheikh, the Demonstrations in Tahrir Square and elsewhere in Egypt continue unabated. Strikes abound. The Egyptian Economy is in Ruins. Sketchy Reports notwithstanding, only the Ancient Egyptian Deities know for sure just how much Damage has been done and how much has disappeared from the Cairo Antiquities Museum just like a few Years earlier, irreplaceable Artifacts of the Messopotamian Æra had disappeared from Baghdad, never to be found again or, in any Case, not for a long, long Time. It is difficult to envision what the Future holds for Egypt.

Additionally, the Proponents of the Domino Theory appear to have gained further supporting Arguments. Earlier, Unrest had spread to Jordan and the Palestinian Territories. Now, fullblown Unrest appears to be underway in Libya, Bahrain, to a lesser Extent in Iran and even in Morroco, which had been considered to be 'Moderate' or 'Safe.' Yemen, where an increasing Number of Terrorists have taken refuge, is on the Edge of exploding. In Libya, Demonstrators are being mowed down with Machine Guns and some Reports indicate that Benghazi, Libya's Second Largest City, has fallen.

Most of us may not have even known where exactly Bahrain is; thus, we may be surprised if we were to find out that the tiny Oil Producing Island is only 200 Miles or so from Riyadh, the Capital of Saudi Arabia and that, unfortunately, there is actually a Bridge connecting Bahrain to the Arabian Peninsula Mainland; the Road leads straight to Riyadh.

After earlier offering to supply the now failed Mubarak Regime any U. S. Military and other Aid which Egypt may have lost from the United States, now the Silence from Saudi Arabia regarding the spreading Unrest is deafening. No less deafening is the Silence from Mrs. Clinton, who earlier all but pulled the Oriental Rug from under Mubarak.

As this Writer earlier noted, in the Days preceding Mubarak's Fall, Wall Street minimised Egypt's Importance to the Turmoil in the Mid-East, Suez Canal and all. Now, while North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, which together produce an indispensable Proportion of the World Oil Supplies, are experiencing Seismic Challenges to Stability, Wall Street appears to be 'concerned' with Wal-Mart Earnings.

This Forum previously suggested that the Linkage between The Fed's Policy of 'Quantitative Easing' and the Flow of Capital into Wall Street needed to be examined. It would seem to make Common Sense, at a Time when the Federal Government is being confronted with Massive Deficits and how to manage them, that Congress look into 'Quantitative Easing' and establish if this massive Outflow of Federal Funds, which Mr. Bernancke, an Economist and a distinguished one at that, found a Way to 'spend' without having it appear on the Books as a Deficit and without the Need of Congressional Approval, is flowing to re-energise the Economy or to re-energise Wall Street.

If President Reagan's Theories of 'Trickle Down Economics' are being adopted by Mr. Bernancke, having forgotten that President George Herbert W. Bush had described them as 'Vodoo Economics,' perhaps we can at least remember an Observation attributed to another Distinguished Republican, who was quoted to have said: 'A Million Dollars here, a Million Dollars there and pretty soon you are talking about Real Money!' However, we would now have to correct the Late and nearly forgotten Senate Minority Leader Everett McKinley Dirksen and add 3 Zeroes at the End of his Numbers. After all, we are talking about Billions here, 600 of them, and more, if 'needed,' according to Mr. Bernancke.

Dancing Elephants

Jeffrey R. Immelt is the Chairman of GE. He succeeded the legendary Jack Welch, who opened new, unprecedented Visions for GE; to this Day, Mr. Welch remains a deeply respected Figure both inside and outside of the Business Community. Just recently, Mr. Immelt was also selected by The White House to head The Economy Advisory Panel, previously headed by Paul A. Volcker, a towering Figure who had steered the Fed during very, very troublesome Waters more than a Quarter of a Century ago. Earlier, Mr. Volcker, a crusty, No Nonsense Individual, had been fired by President Reagan because, among other Reasons, he had not been an avid enough 'Deregulator' and we all know what 'avid Deregulation' has brought the Economy to.

Mr. Immelt's Company, on the other hand, is fast becoming known as the Company which is bringing to us Entertainment in the Form of TV Ads featuring Dancing Animated Elephants, People dressed in funny Costumes who, instead of working, are dancing and singing on GE Factory Floors and, just now, a 500 Million Dollar GE Capital Loan to Borders Book Stores, which has just filed for Chapter 11.

One could well wonder, what Ideas Mr. Immelt is going to be suggesting to President Obama but Things like Dancing Animated Elephants are not likely to be of much use.

Duel - Obama v. Clinton Teil 2 - Part Two - Deuxième Act

One little Item went nearly unnoticed over the News Wires a few Days ago; Mrs. Clinton said, she would not (Emphasis added) commit to serving as Secretary of State in a Second Obama Administration. For that, obviously, the Implication is that Mr. Obama would be re-elected for a Second Term but, the Implication also is that Mr. Obama would be re-nominated by the Democratic Party for a Second Term; an almost universally shared Assumption. However, one should not assume that almost universally shared means that Mrs. Clinton shares in that Universe. Not too long ago, Mrs. Clinton had also stated in various Interviews that she loves her Job as Secretary of State, that it is such a great Job and that it gives the Opportunity to deal with so many Challenges on the World Stage.

Last Weekend, The New York Times broke with the Story regarding the Rift between 'The White House' and 'The State Department' (on the Issue of the Transition in Egypt, with Mubarak staying Short Term or Longer Term) which, translated into English means, the Rift between President Obama and Mrs. Clinton. There have also been Suggestions that the Leak(s) regarding the Rift came from The White House, which, if true, would absolve Mrs. Clinton of any Attempts to undermine the Authority of the President. Only The New York Times knows that for sure. However, before going too far inside that Suggestion, it might be useful to make a few Observations.

When the Demonstrations in Egypt broke out, the First Hawkish Statements came from Mrs. Clinton herself. In her inimitable Albrightesque-Cojonesque Style, Mrs. Clinton declared, with a menacing Voice, that the Leaders of Egypt (i. e., Mubarak) have no Choice but to listen to the Voices being raised in Tahrir Square. The White House bought into the Argument and, as the Demonstrations proceeded and gained Intensity, Mr. Obama came out on Television and through Statements issued by The White House and his Press Secretary, for a Rapid Transition in Egypt, accusing Mr. Mubarak of not moving fast enough, which of course he was not.

When, for all Intents and Purposes, Mubarak's Fate had been sealed, then the State Department became engaged into an Effort of lobbying for a Longer Transition, with Mubarak continuing to play a Role. That, in Effect, as we say, pulled the Rug from under the White House Statements, or, as I think somebody said way back during the Nixon Administration, left the White House 'twist slowly in the Wind,' without full, active and unqualified Support from The State Department.

Thus, one may ask the Question: 'Why?' One possible Answer is that Mrs. Clinton may be eyeing 2012. Many think that Mrs. Clinton would not attempt such a Thing until 2016. However, Politics today seem to dictate, 'Sooner is better than later,' in every Circumstance except when it comes to Budget Cuts and raising Taxes. Additionally, many of us, including Mrs. Clinton, could not help but notice the meteoric Rise of Sarah Palin who has literally come out of nowhere and who, many think, is going to make a Run for the White House, no matter what. Virgil said, 'Audentes Fortuna juvat.' With a little Bit of Luck, there may even be some Palin v. Bachmann Republican Primaries or even Palin v. Nikki Haley Primaries, in the South. Most astute Observers think that Palin is not very likely to be nominated by the Republican Party and, if she were, she would lose badly against President Obama or, any other possible Democratic Nominees and there aren't that many other 'possible Democratic Nominees' except, of course, for Mrs. Clinton. However, the very Fact of a Palin Candidacy in the Primaries, would raise the Awareness for a Woman Presidential Candidate.

For Mrs. Clinton to make another Run for the Democratic Nomination, the Stars would have to line up not just right, they would have to be perfectly lined up. That would mean, for the Budget, Deficit and Economy Issues to continue to run South; those, Mrs. Clinton knows she has no control over; they are on Automatic Pilot but the Automatic Pilot is steering a Course favourable to Mrs. Clinton; so, a few Foreign Policy Misalignments would not hurt.

Mrs. Clinton received a Total of 18 Million Votes in the last Series of Presidential Primaries; that is a formidable Achievement, particularly because she ran against a formidable Opponent and this Time, if it were that even the Possibility arose, that the First Woman President of the United States could be elected, the prevailing Wisdom would very likely be: No! Not Nikki Haley, not Michelle Bachmann and Heaven forbid Sarah Palin; Clinton!

And President Clinton would no longer have to go to the Pulpit in a Black Church and have to ponder outloud, how to solve the Dilemma of an 'Abundance of Riches' when it comes to making up his Mind regarding who would be the best Presidential Candidate this Time; there would now be only one logical Choice.

Nicollò Macchiavelli's Book, 'Il Principe' may have finally come to deserve a Sequel...'La Principessa.'

A Message for Valentine's Day

Today is Valentine’s Day and all the Inspiration that it can be for what it represents for Joyfulness, Tranquility, Sincerity and Love.

There is a huge Commercial Hoopla which surrounds this Day. Actually, the real Meaning of Valentine’s Day comes from St. Valentine, who happens to have been a Christian Saint. The Name Valentine means Strength or Courage, as in 'Valour' and it is associated with Strength of Love, not with cheesy Lovemaking. More interestingly, the Word also means Value, or Worth. The Name ‘Valentinus’ was derived from the Word Valens/Valentis (Value, Worth – as in, for Example, Equi-Valent – same Value/Worth – intentionally hyphenated here). Whatever Meaning one chooses to put in it, is, for each, his or her own Business. However, even when letting Imagination, trivial Romanticism or Commercialism, anything from Chocolates, to Flowers and beyond, extending as far as Diamonds, run unbridled, perhaps one should set back and ponder for a Moment that Valentine stands for Strength and Courage for one’s own Beliefs (Values). It can, it should therefore, it can be said, also represent the Strength and Courage needed for Love, when one loves another or is in love.

Egypt - Nothing to worry about?

It has become clearer and clearer in the last few Days that Mubarak's Departure is imminent. Whether he leaves Today, or Tomorrow or the Next Day, those are the only Things which various Observers and others are debating or seeking to influence. It is also evident, at least to some of us that Egypt is entering Uncharted Waters. Nobody really knows, even if they claim to know, just what a Future Egypt will look like, next Month or next Year.

It is interesting in this Context that numerous Financial Analysts dismiss the Turmoil in Egypt and describe it as being inconsequential, in Terms of the Effect in might have on International Trade and thus, the World Economy. Various Arguments are submitted in support of this Thesis: The Egyptian Economy is very small, Egyptian Trade with the West is limited, there are no huge Egyptian Mega Banks. Thus, the World Stock Markets have continued unaffected, indeed, generally advancing, totally dismissing the unfolding Turmoil in Egypt.

One wonders how many of these Analysts have taken into Consideration the Suez Canal. Acts of Sabotage have been reported both in the Canal Zone and the Suez Pipeline, which is adjacent to it. To the Extent that the Political Instability in Egypt might influence the Safe Operation or, indeed, the very Operation of the Suez Canal, some of these very same Financial Analysts would do well to take notice that the Suez Canal carries, according to some Estimates, nearly 10% of the World Shipping and a very large Proportion of the Oil produced in the Arabian Peninsula. When the Suez Canal had to be closed as a result of the 1967 War, it remained closed for 8 Years; the Consequences on World Trade, particularly Oil Trade were enormous.

The other Danger, which these Financial Analysts appear to ignore and pay no Attention to or indeed, even discuss, is the much spoken 'Domino Effect' which transferred from Tunisia to Egypt and may be headed elsewhere, to places such as Jordan or Yemen. While neither Jordan or Yemen are Oil Exporting Nations, the simple Likelihood of Instability, however slight, in the Arabian Peninsula Region is something which perhaps should not be too easily dismissed. Finally, nothing is known about what Effects all this may or may not be having on Saudi Arabia, a Giant Oil Producer and also a Country where, according to some Reports, a certain Form of Slavery is still legal.

The Question behind this Article is to ask what Kind of Logic is driving the Positive Outlook of the Stock Market Averages, in view of this Onslaught of very worrying News. The underlying Question to that Question is, that if one assumes the Obvious, that Financial Markets can only be driven by Money, i. e., more Money flowing in than flowing out, then to what Extent the Policy of the Fed's 'Quantitative Easing' is fueling all this. It has been noted many, many Times before; Markets only go up when more Money flows in than flows out; that particular Law of Mathematics has not yet been repealed.

This should bring us down to taking a Look at some other Fundamentals: Jobs, Housing/Mortgages and Health Care. Mr. Bernanke testified before Congress on 9 February and spoke about the Dangers of the horrendous Federal Deficits but seemed to be little concerned about 'Quantitative Easing' which, although it carries a different Mathematical Symbol than the Federal Deficits before the Numerals, it has the same Effect as Deficit Spending, meaning, Cash Out. It would be useful to know, it would seem, therefore, just how much of this 'Quantitative Easing' Cash Out is finding its Way into Financial Markets, whether managed or coincidental and what the overall Effect on the Economy that would produce, if indeed that is the Case.

'Universities'

Most of us have an eMail Account of one Sort of another and, as Time goes by, our eMails get 'mined,' sorted, given away, sold and eventually used by eMailing Lists of all Sorts. One of the more Interesting Classes of Lists that is out there are the Lists used by 'Universities.' Let's flash back for a Moment. Traditionally in the United States we have had Public Universities and Colleges as well as Privately Endowed Universities and Colleges. 'Public' meant owned and financed by the State, ´Private,' meant, 'Privately Endowed' by a Founder, Charity, Institution or a Combination of these and similar Entities. To that, a more recent Development has been the 'Junior College' System which, some us understood to be a 'Bridge' for Underprivileged or Underachievers to eventually reach a College or University. There are also a few Special Situation Institutes of Higher Education. What one normally did not associate with a 'College' or 'University' was a Private, for Profit Business, similar to a Factory, Insurance Company, Advertising Firm, etc., a Business of any Type. Yet, if one looks under the Core of some of the 'Colleges' and 'Universities' which actively and aggressively recruit Students, through Advertising and on Line, with Names like de Vry, Strayer, University of Phoenix and many others, that's what they all seem to be, Businesses. One wonders how much the Federal Student Loan Program has contributed to the Development of such Business and just what the overall Benefit they render to Society is.

It might be good to keep in Mind a very interesting Observation which was recently made by former retired U. S. Supreme Court Justice Souter, speaking at a Symposium at Yale University. Citing a Study that he had read, he noted that, on average, the Academic Level of a High School Graduate in the 1990's was about the same as the Academic Level of a High School Dropout in the 1940's. He also noted, again, citing the same Study, that the Academic Level of a College Graduate in the 1990's was about the same as the Academic Level of a High School Graduate in the 1940's. What Justice Souter did not mention is the Fact that in the 1940's, it did not cost $25.000,00 a Year to get a High School Diploma.