Egypt - Nothing to worry about?

It has become clearer and clearer in the last few Days that Mubarak's Departure is imminent. Whether he leaves Today, or Tomorrow or the Next Day, those are the only Things which various Observers and others are debating or seeking to influence. It is also evident, at least to some of us that Egypt is entering Uncharted Waters. Nobody really knows, even if they claim to know, just what a Future Egypt will look like, next Month or next Year.

It is interesting in this Context that numerous Financial Analysts dismiss the Turmoil in Egypt and describe it as being inconsequential, in Terms of the Effect in might have on International Trade and thus, the World Economy. Various Arguments are submitted in support of this Thesis: The Egyptian Economy is very small, Egyptian Trade with the West is limited, there are no huge Egyptian Mega Banks. Thus, the World Stock Markets have continued unaffected, indeed, generally advancing, totally dismissing the unfolding Turmoil in Egypt.

One wonders how many of these Analysts have taken into Consideration the Suez Canal. Acts of Sabotage have been reported both in the Canal Zone and the Suez Pipeline, which is adjacent to it. To the Extent that the Political Instability in Egypt might influence the Safe Operation or, indeed, the very Operation of the Suez Canal, some of these very same Financial Analysts would do well to take notice that the Suez Canal carries, according to some Estimates, nearly 10% of the World Shipping and a very large Proportion of the Oil produced in the Arabian Peninsula. When the Suez Canal had to be closed as a result of the 1967 War, it remained closed for 8 Years; the Consequences on World Trade, particularly Oil Trade were enormous.

The other Danger, which these Financial Analysts appear to ignore and pay no Attention to or indeed, even discuss, is the much spoken 'Domino Effect' which transferred from Tunisia to Egypt and may be headed elsewhere, to places such as Jordan or Yemen. While neither Jordan or Yemen are Oil Exporting Nations, the simple Likelihood of Instability, however slight, in the Arabian Peninsula Region is something which perhaps should not be too easily dismissed. Finally, nothing is known about what Effects all this may or may not be having on Saudi Arabia, a Giant Oil Producer and also a Country where, according to some Reports, a certain Form of Slavery is still legal.

The Question behind this Article is to ask what Kind of Logic is driving the Positive Outlook of the Stock Market Averages, in view of this Onslaught of very worrying News. The underlying Question to that Question is, that if one assumes the Obvious, that Financial Markets can only be driven by Money, i. e., more Money flowing in than flowing out, then to what Extent the Policy of the Fed's 'Quantitative Easing' is fueling all this. It has been noted many, many Times before; Markets only go up when more Money flows in than flows out; that particular Law of Mathematics has not yet been repealed.

This should bring us down to taking a Look at some other Fundamentals: Jobs, Housing/Mortgages and Health Care. Mr. Bernanke testified before Congress on 9 February and spoke about the Dangers of the horrendous Federal Deficits but seemed to be little concerned about 'Quantitative Easing' which, although it carries a different Mathematical Symbol than the Federal Deficits before the Numerals, it has the same Effect as Deficit Spending, meaning, Cash Out. It would be useful to know, it would seem, therefore, just how much of this 'Quantitative Easing' Cash Out is finding its Way into Financial Markets, whether managed or coincidental and what the overall Effect on the Economy that would produce, if indeed that is the Case.

'Universities'

Most of us have an eMail Account of one Sort of another and, as Time goes by, our eMails get 'mined,' sorted, given away, sold and eventually used by eMailing Lists of all Sorts. One of the more Interesting Classes of Lists that is out there are the Lists used by 'Universities.' Let's flash back for a Moment. Traditionally in the United States we have had Public Universities and Colleges as well as Privately Endowed Universities and Colleges. 'Public' meant owned and financed by the State, ´Private,' meant, 'Privately Endowed' by a Founder, Charity, Institution or a Combination of these and similar Entities. To that, a more recent Development has been the 'Junior College' System which, some us understood to be a 'Bridge' for Underprivileged or Underachievers to eventually reach a College or University. There are also a few Special Situation Institutes of Higher Education. What one normally did not associate with a 'College' or 'University' was a Private, for Profit Business, similar to a Factory, Insurance Company, Advertising Firm, etc., a Business of any Type. Yet, if one looks under the Core of some of the 'Colleges' and 'Universities' which actively and aggressively recruit Students, through Advertising and on Line, with Names like de Vry, Strayer, University of Phoenix and many others, that's what they all seem to be, Businesses. One wonders how much the Federal Student Loan Program has contributed to the Development of such Business and just what the overall Benefit they render to Society is.

It might be good to keep in Mind a very interesting Observation which was recently made by former retired U. S. Supreme Court Justice Souter, speaking at a Symposium at Yale University. Citing a Study that he had read, he noted that, on average, the Academic Level of a High School Graduate in the 1990's was about the same as the Academic Level of a High School Dropout in the 1940's. He also noted, again, citing the same Study, that the Academic Level of a College Graduate in the 1990's was about the same as the Academic Level of a High School Graduate in the 1940's. What Justice Souter did not mention is the Fact that in the 1940's, it did not cost $25.000,00 a Year to get a High School Diploma.

Saturday's Matinée Performance at The Met - La Traviata

Over the years, 'La Traviata' (Music by Giuseppe Verdi, Libretto by Francesco Maria Piave) has been the most performed Opera by The Met. Thus, The Met has a rich Hertiage to uphold, every time it stages this performance. Sad to say, Sunday's Matinée Performance, described in such glowing terms by Margaret Junkwait and Ira Siff, fell far, far short of such standards. Not that the singers were not good. They were. Poplavskaya can sing Violetta well and the conducting by Noseda certainly showed a thorough understanding of the Score. But the presentation of the Willy Decker production, with Act 2, 3 and 4 all compressed into a non-stop/'let's get this over with' tempo left the listener uninspired by the deep emotion and meaning that Verdi or, for that matter, Alexandre Dumas fils had in mind. Perhaps one should remind The Met, if anyone is 'listening' that less is more can sometimes be deceiving and that sticking to basics may not be, after all, 'passée.'

Snowstorm and Paralysis in New York City

Some of us wonder why so much Praise is lavished upon Mayor Bloomberg, when one reads about the miserable Street Situation after the Snowstorm that just hit New York City. Isn't New York City also in serious Financial Trouble facing massive Cuts after Mayor Bloomberg completed Two Terms in Office and had the City Charter ammended so he could run for a Third Term which he is serving now? What Results deserving of all this Praise are we talking about?